THANK YOU.

Our transition to a consolidated service that teaches you to be your own portfolio manager is now complete. I guess April showers really do bring May flowers!

They did for this community, as you now have one packaged service to hear directly from me, chat with me and use my 40 years of professional investing however you wish. So you can be the Y in “DIY Investor.”

That’s a good time to remind all subscribers (even if you are simply touring as a free member)…we provide a ton of free learning material at ETFYourself.com.

“Evergreen” articles that focus not on “what to buy now” but on “how to think like a serious investor.” That includes topics such as:

• Putting defense first, to achieve better long-term returns

• Why tactical investing is no longer a choice for successful investing. Buy and hold has gone and went.

• Holding cash (via ETFs) is not a sign of weakness. It is what savvy investors do when markets lack direction and/or any sense of stability (like now).

• How to use charting (technical analysis) as a risk-management weapon. Most writing about ETF and stock charting is geared to traders. We go beyond that.

• How to truly understand what ETFs are, and are not. So you can use them well.

• How to create a portfolio that works for you, not a “collection of investments.”

• How to figure out who you are as an investor. Then manage your assets to it.

That’s all part of the free material here. Soak it in.

And, if you have not yet joined us as a paid subscriber, we’ve consolidated our offering:

• $150/year gets you all of the writing behind the paywall as they say (ETFYourself.com)

• $600/year gets you ETFYourself.com AND full access to ROAR.PiTrade.com, where you can build your own portfolios, or “copy off of my paper in class” by simply following one the models I created and use myself. They range from simple-but-effective 2-ETF portfolios to ROAR 10 ETF, the most popular member of the squad, since it is the closest to what I did professionally during my advisory and fund management career.

Note that this combined service will be priced at $600 for another 26 days. After May 31, the price will adjust to $1,000 a year.

Why are we worth it?

We take risk management more seriously than “set it and forget it” approaches to ETF portfolios. Preventing major losses along the way to long-term success requires the willingness to be as proactive as necessary, when necessary.

How do our portfolios do this?

By combining ETFs in our specific way, we avoid the “silent killer” of portfolio management: redundancy from owning dozens of ETFs or hundreds of stocks that represent too small a part of the portfolio to matter significantly. The goal is not to build a “collection of securities.” It is to build a portfolio that works like a machine, manages risk, and grows over time.

ROAR.PiTrade.com: automated, discliplined, research-driven investment portfolios at your fingertips, for you to:

1. Use them as a research core from which to build your own portfolios

2. Follow them and trade them yourself

3. Have them traded for you (free using the PiTrade.com app)

   ROAR here

Now, let’s talk about these markets, as the DIY portfolio managers we are.

I see 3 things right now that will determine whether the rest of 2026 will be a good, bad or ugly. And I do not think they are the things everyone is talking about.

Read more

For a limited time, we are offering this weekly live session to all our subscribers. Please join us HERE on

Tuesday, May 5 at 4 PM EST

All sessions will be recorded and posted for review.

This is a great way to learn about the tools available at ROAR.PiTrade and see them in action as Rob’s gives a weekly report using the ROAR.PiTrade analysis.

📈 The Sunday Edition: Market Trends | ETF Strategies | Myth-Busting

Your weekly roadmap to navigating the noise and finding the signal.

🛡️ Core Strategy & Portfolio Construction

Before diving into the headlines, start with the foundation. Whether you are looking for a tactical edge or a simplified approach, these guides have you covered.

• My 10-ETF Approach: A Timely Update In 2 Forms - Permanent Portfolio And Tactical Portfolio

• This Simple 2-ETF Mix May Spell The End Of 60/40 Portfolio Mania

🤖 The AI & Tech Revolution

From the “circulatory system” of AI to record-breaking compute spending, tech remains the primary market driver.

• Compute Spending Just Broke the Dot-Com Record High. Here’s the Safe Way to Invest in AI Now…. Just in Case.

• Dan Ives’ Latest AI ETF Goes Beyond the Mag 7, Focusing on the ‘Circulatory System’ of a Tech Revolution

• Semiconductor Stocks Are the New Elephant in the Room at 14% of the S&P 500. How to Play This Tech Super-Sector

• Why Rambus Stock’s Post-Earnings Plunge Might Be a Canary in the Coal Mine for AI Stocks

• 5 Magnificent 7 Stocks Report Earnings This Week. Here’s What to Watch for Each.

🛰️ Emerging Frontiers: Space, Prediction Markets, & Shorts

Innovation isn’t just in software; it’s in how we trade and where we travel.

• Will the SpaceX IPO Take Tema’s Space ETF (NASA) to the Moon?

• New ETF Filings Tout Ways to Play Prediction Markets with Your Retirement Savings. A Lot Could Go Wrong.

• Sell the News? You Can Now Bet Against Sandisk Stock Twice Over with This New ETF

⚠️ Risk Management & Macro Watch

Between Fed “Shadow Chairs” and plunging stocks, risk management is non-negotiable this week.

• Kevin Warsh Has Been Labeled a ‘Sock Puppet.’ A Potential Federal Reserve ‘Shadow Chair’ Is a Much Greater Threat for Investors.

• Avis Budget Stock Falls 75% in 4 Days. Should You Buy the CAR Crash?

• Let’s Get This Strait: Ignore Energy Prices at Your Own Peril (and 3 ETFs to Buy Now)

• These 3 Charts Look Like Thoroughbreds: Get Derby-Ready With My Racetrack-to-SPY Roadmap

🚀 Level Up Your Strategy

Reading is the first step; execution is the second.

• Join the Community: Meet our ROAR.PiTrade members every Tuesday at 4 PM EST to discuss these charts live with Rob Isbitts.

• Track Risk: Check out the ROAR score on Pitrade.com.

• Get the Charts: Start a 30-Day Free Trial of BarChart Premier.

• Deep Research: Get $30 off Seeking Alpha Premium.

I grew up in Bergen County, the northern end of New Jersey. Dana and I moved to South Florida in the late 1990s. If you ever wondered about the derivation of the SUNGARDEN name, that’s it. We moved to the Sunshine State from the Garden State.

But we didn’t leave the memories behind. As a young Wall Streeter in the 1980s and 1990s, the pre-internet age, one of my favorite things was to walk past the newstands in NYC and see what the latest New York Post headlines were. Especially when it came to sports. It was like every day was a new classic.

Whoever wins the KY Derby, the headlines will be epic

So in that spirit, and since I’m a big fan of the sport of horse racing, I put together my best guess (or suggestions, if anyone from the NY Post or other papers are reading this). There are 20 horses expected to run in Saturday’s Kentucky Derby at iconic Churchill Downs in Louisville, Kentucky.

While there are certainly favorites in the race, any horse can win. It is like a stock with a ROAR Score of 10 spiking higher just a few weeks later. It can happen. Just as a ROAR Score of 80 can precede a decline. They are odds, not certainties.

OK, I promised you yesterday that this post would be about something other than investing. So back to the Derby. And the post, as in NY Post-inspired.

Here are my suggestions for Sunday morning’s headlines to celebrate the winner of horse racing’s “Saturday Super Bowl.” There’s one for each of the 20 entries.

And if this inspires you to come up with some of your own, send them to me in the chat here. That way, if the editors of the big papers do contact me for suggestions, I can include yours too :-)

Enjoy the Derby!

Headlines I’d like to see if this horse wins the Kentucky Derby

(presented in post position order)

1. Renegade: RENEGADE STYX TO BUSINESS! (1980's rock reference)

2. Albus: ALBUS-TING OUT!

3. Intrepido: PIER-LESS (Intrepid Sea, Air & Space Museum is at NYC’s Pier 86)

4. Litmus Test: PASSING THE TEST!

5. Commandment: THOU SHALT NOT LOSE!

6. Danon Bourbon: HE’LL DRINK TO THAT

7. So Happy: HAPPINESS IN LOUISVILLE!

8. The Puma: KING OF THE JUNGLE!

9. Wonder Dean: WONDER KID

10. Incredibolt: BOLT OF LIGHTNING!

11. Chief Wallabee: HAIL TO THE CHIEF!

12. Potente: HIGH POTENCY!

13. Emerging Market: EMERGED!

14. Pavlovian: RING THAT BELL! DERBY WINNER RESPONDS.

15. Six Speed: SIX IS ENOUGH!

16. Further Ado: JUST ADO IT! (or MUCH ADO ABOUT WINNING!)

17. Golden Tempo: GOLDEN BOY!

18. Great White: SHARK ATTACK!

    or WE’RE GONNA NEED A BIGGER TROPHY! (reference to movie “Jaws”)

19. Ocelli: BIG TIME CELLY!

20. Robusta: BUSTING OUT!

Earlier today, my latest article at Seeking Alpha (where I publish under Sungarden Investment Publishing), gave my updated views on 60/40 portfolios. I’ve been chronicling this popular but highly overrated attempt to simplify investing for the masses for a long time. In fact, if you simply go into your favorite AI and type what does Rob Isbitts think of 60/40? you’ll get more than you bargained for!

Seeking Alpha is a subscription platform, and a very good one. But I think they may allow non-subscribers to read one or two articles a month to try it out. So if that link above works, you can try to check it out directly. Subscribers there, whether you follow me there or not, can find it easily.

Those articles are often more detailed than many of my posts here, as that’s the idea of Seeking Alpha. So from time to time, if I write something there that is based on large part on the key tenets of what we do here at ETFYourself.com (writing) and at ROAR.PiTrade.com (portfolio-building and model access), I want you to see it too.

There are some limits to re-purposing that material, but I am able to deliver essentially a “highlights” version. And that’s what I’m doing here. Because the simplicity of the little research exercise I did in that article is precisely what I’ve been emphasizing in live sessions and in my blog work here.

I hope this version helps you stay informed. I think this it covers one of the most important DIY investing topics of our time. And few people are in the position I am to discuss it freely. I explain here:

Subscribe now

Read more

With all the years I’ve spent investing and writing about it, it is always easier to be myself when I’m receiving the questions to answer, not performing both roles. So I was thrilled and grateful to Elizabeth Volk, Sarah Holzmann and the team at Barchart when they sought me out for an article titled, What You Don't Know About ETFs Might Hurt You. Rob's Here To Help.

If you want a quick glimpse of investing philosophy and strategy I use to run both our weekly live show (like today’s at 4PM EST), and my own family’s portfolio, that article might be the best one I’ve seen. Because someone else was asking me about it.

Now, on to this week’s report. I wrote a more stock-centic article on a stock known as Rambus (RMBS) for my column at Barchart.com, and decided I see too much going on to not use a similar title here. By “too much” I mean too much that reminds me of past eras I’ve managed money through that ended well for risk managers, but not for most investors. Why??

Because most investors are not risk managers

They should learn to be, and that’s what this site and my semi-retired career is at this point. Your screen is flooded constantly with ways to make money from rising stock prices.

What happens when the way to make money is by doing everything except waiting around for stock prices to go up?

ETFYourself.com and our new packaged research service with ROAR.PITrade.com is devoted not to replacing the more “exciting” sites investors flock to in bull markets. I say, enjoy that! But since defense matters too, and knowing how to play it is best not left to the last minute? This is why we exist.

And this is why this week’s topic drills down on that risk management concept, using the most timely, actionable examples I could find. Here we go…

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Thank you for being part of our growing community here on Substack! We spent decades working primarily for a limited number of high net worth families. We were fiduciaries, which means we operated in a manner that prioritized their specific objectives above our own. We retired from that investment advisory business 6 years ago. But we didn’t retire completely.

In fact, we work as hard now as ever. But the focus is very different. We offer the experience of being “in the trenches” of Wall Street from 1986 through the present, enough to experience and learn from a long list of market cycles. Especially the rough ones.

We’ve put 130,000+ hours of hands-on investment research, strategic thinking, intellectual property development (ROAR, YARP, etc.), and a habitual belief in thinking “outside the box” to work here. At ETFYourself.com. And now, at ROAR.PiTrade.com too.

As I’ve written here many times, and shared with our weekly live learning group, investing for yourself is really about answering some very straightforward questions. Note: I didn’t say easy. But once you answer them for yourself, the stress and emotion it takes out of your investing, and by extension your life and lifestyle, is enormous. We are living proof of that. The questions:

WHY…are you investing the way you do, to what end goal? It’s personal to everyone.

WHAT…will you consider owning? Maybe not today, but at some point.

WHEN…will you own those ETFs, stocks, etc. and under what conditions?

HOW…will you run your portfolio strategy? And do you even have one? Or, is it really (be honest) a “collection of securities” without a portfolio plan?

Those are some straightforward questions. Not easy ones. But how do you even think through them for yourself? Isn’t that what investment advisors and brokers do?

The good ones absolutely do, and there are many of them around. There are also many who, unfortunately, do not. That’s usually because they are part of a big herd, where their role is more a part of an army, and they can only go so far in personalizing the advice and experience.

By the way, neither can we at ETFYourself.com. Our firm, Sungarden Investment Publishing, is NOT a provider of personalized advice. That was our old role.

What we do now? Teach others to be their own portfolio manager. The way I was to others, and now to my own family. And while “ETF Yourself” might sound like we are cursing at someone (not you, we promise!), it actually means:

Create portfolios…using ETFs…by yourself!

As our paid subscribers know, we also use stocks, and have now created a wide range of portfolios. None of them are complex, and some are quite simple. All are VERY easy to implement yourself. Or, you can click over to PiTrade.com, the investment advisory firm run by our partners in ROAR.PiTrade.com, and have my model portfolio traded for you. With no management fee.

We’ve licensed our research and ROAR methodology to them, so that we could bring my decades of chart-reading to a wider audience.

Now, for the last part of the story. The part where YOU get to decide how you want to access 130,000 hours of my experience, and the dynamic platform we built. A package that combines:

My writing, research and timely insights at ETFYourself.com

AND

The powerful analytics and portfolio-building capabilities of ROAR.PiTrade.com

We covered the WHY, WHAT, WHEN and HOW above. So the last one is…you guessed it…the WHO!

And, while this would be an opportune time for me to riff on the work of Roger Daltry, Pete Townshend, and the rest of that classic rock band, this is about a different WHO: who you will use as a resource to help you be your own portfolio manager.

We think you consider us. And to do so soon. Here’s why:

We offer 3 levels of subscription (non-personalized) access to all of the above:

LEVEL 1: Introductory paragraphs to what I’m talking about behind the paywall.

LEVEL 2: All my writing/research at ETFYourself.com ($150/year or $15/month).

_______________________________________________________________________

LEVEL 3: The whole package. All Level 1 benefits plus full access to ROAR.PiTrade.com. ETF and stock analysis updated daily, create your own watchlists, all the model portfolios, and admission to me weekly live show and subscriber chat. And you’re one click away from free copy trading of those models over at PiTrade.com.

That’s all for $600 a year…through May 31, when the annual price will rise to $1,000 a year, and we’ll start offering a monthly subscription at $100 a month.

This is the Build Your Own Portfolio package. We think there’s nothing like it.

We built it this way to provide DIY investors with the professional-grade insight and analytics they want, with the type of coaching they prefer, at a price that is a fraction of the $20,000-$50,000 a year our private clients paid for the personalized investment management experience we offered in our “prior life.”

Let’s recap

Here’s what you can expect:

1. Free Membership

The Essentials for Every Investor

• ROAR Scores: Real-time momentum and risk ratings for any stock or ETF.

• Custom Watchlists: Track your personal holdings with ROAR-integrated data.

• Standard Portfolios: Access to our entry-level model strategies.

• Market Summary: Real-time snapshots of major indices and all 11 market sectors.

2. ROAR Premium (The Research Package)

Full Portfolio Models, Strategy, and Coaching — $600 / year

• Exclusive 10-ETF Portfolio: Our most popular dynamic model. See the current positions and weightings at any time.

• The Dow 30 Model: A risk-managed take on the 30 blue-chip leaders.

• Full Research Archive: Every deep-dive article from ETFYourself.com delivered to your inbox and searchable on-site.

• Sunday Highlights: Weekly curated links to my latest columns on Barchart and Seeking Alpha.

• Weekly Live Show: Join our live market coaching sessions for direct communication and DIY investor support.

• Daily “Marked-to-Market” Weights: Portfolio weightings change frequently; access the exact, updated allocations daily.

Starting June 1, this service will revert to full price at $1000, but we are offering a 40% legacy discount to anyone who signs up by May 31.

Where to find Rob on the Web

• ETFYourself.com – Our primary home for tactical research and personal portfolio moves.

• ROAR.PiTrade.com – The interactive research portal and portfolio construction tool.

• PiTrade.com - Copy trade Rob’s portfolios through this Robo Advisor

• Barchart.com – Read Rob’s weekly column on technical analysis and market primers.

• YouTube - Learn more from our live communication

Welcome to this week's breakdown. We’re cutting through the noise to focus on what actually moves the needle—from the "5% Rule" for retirees to the high-stakes future of AI and Tesla.

🔍 Featured Analysis: The New Retirement Blueprint

• Forget The 4% Rule, Here’s The 5% Rule For Retirees Traditional wisdom is changing. We break down why the old 4% withdrawal standard might be holding you back and how a zero-coupon bond ladder offers a predictable 5% alternative in today’s environment.

  ---

⚡ The AI & Tech Report

• IBM, Honeywell, and Cisco Stocks Remind Us That If You’re Not Invested in AI, You’re Losing in Today’s Market Legacy tech giants are fighting for their share of the AI revolution.

• How AI Ate the S&P 500 — And What It Means for Investors Understanding what extreme concentration means for your diversification.

• The QQQ Chart Hints at 2 Extremes: Either a Dot-Com Bubble Burst or a Technical Breakout Ahead Are we looking at a bubble or a massive breakout?

• This New ETF Could Soon Be a Big Hit Or a Distant Memory: Why DRAM Is As Good As the AI Trade Allows It to Be The high stakes of the DRAM and AI trade.

🛡️ Risk & Opportunity

• Tesla’s Business Is at a Historic Crossroads, but What About Its Stock Price? Historic business challenges vs. stock price reality.

• This Cybersecurity ETF Just Suffered a Pullback. Should You Buy the Dip? Deciding if it's time to buy the dip on this vital sector.

• Can Ethereum Make a Giant Comeback? Here’s the Bull Case. Analyzing the potential for a crypto resurgence.

• The Iran War Has Made Oil Prices a Moving Target. That’s Why This ETF and Option Combination Makes Sense. Navigating war volatility with smart ETF and option combinations.

• Catching the Falling Knife: Are These 4 Loser Stocks Down 50% or More Worth the Risk? Analyzing 4 stocks down 50%+ to see if they're worth the risk.

• UnitedHealth Is Back! But Should You ‘Long-Term Care’ About UNH Stock? Is it time to care about this healthcare leader?

🚀 Level Up Your Strategy

Reading is the first step; execution is the second. Join our ROAR.PiTrade members every Tuesday at 4 PM EST to discuss these charts live with Rob Isbitts.

• Track Risk: Check out the ROAR score on Pitrade.com.

• Get the Charts: Start a 30-Day Free Trial of BarChart Premier.

• Deep Research: Get $30 off Seeking Alpha Premium.

Subscribe now

Turning $1 into $2 is nice. Turning $100,000 into $200,000 is even nicer. But whatever the starting dollar amount happens to be, I think the simplest way to do that is the one no ones talks about.

You know WHY no one talks about it? Because there’s not enough money in it for them. But for the ones receiving the message, the ability to take this simple approach and personalize it to their own situation is something I think gets overlooked in the deluge of AI stocks, IPOs and “SPY or die” type of long-term investing.

If you read my work at Barchart.com, you’ve seen me talk about this. And if you are part of my live weekly sessions for premium subscribers, we’ve interacted over this topic frequently. Spoiler alert: my article for Seeking Alpha which will be published tomorrow morning is my latest thinking on this.

There’s a reason I keep coming back to this topic. Because I find it too compelling not to discuss with subscribers. There’s no magic to it. And it is not about immediate gratification.

It is about the things I talk about, in large part because I think that’s the GAP in the busy sea of investment publishing. Setting realistic goals, understanding how markets now work, managing risk first, then trying to make as much as you can.

It is all part of that “starter set” of key points which are essentially why I’m still working. Because I think there are enough people out there who can benefit from someone who’s invested for decades, and does not belittle his own experience by being yet another “stock picks” guy. The world has plenty of good ones, and more than plenty of bad ones. It doesn’t need another one.

So, here it is, simple and elegant. It is something I just did myself, so I’m talking my book as they say. Which I hope when you read it, you will appreciate. Here it is:

Read more

More importantly, THIS ARTICLE is as good a summary of what I do, where my motivation comes from, and how I map my experience to today’s markets as any feature story ever done on my work.

There’s also THIS INTRIGUING POST on Barchart’s new Substack, which covers the more “entertaining” parts of that recent interview.

Subscribe now

Thanks to Elizabeth Volk, Sarah Holzmann and the whole Barchart.com team for doing this!

If you are already a subscriber here, what’s covered in those written works is probably familar territory. I think you will enjoy seeing a lot of it tied together by Elizabeth, one of the sharpest minds in the publishing business.

If you are not already part of our “behind the paywall” crew, this will give you a better idea of where I’ve been, and where I think investor empowerment is going. And how we at ETFYourself.com are helping DIY investors, using everyday common sense, not hype and misdirection.

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The S&P 500 (SPY) and Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) get all the street cred. Me? I’m a Dow 30 fan, but not because of the weighting system, where that set of blue chip stocks is allocated by stock price instead of the usual company size (a.k.a. market capitalization).

I like the Dow because, of the 3 major US stock market measures, it is the only one not currently overloaded with tech stocks. So when I look at the Dow 30, the holdings in ETF ticker DIA, I am not looking at their relative size. I am simply analyzing 30 companies that have been selected to try to represent the US economy. It is a manageable and diverse basket.

As I wrote here recently, one of the model portfolios I run (it is one of my personal favorites) takes the Dow 30, owns all of them at all times, but uses my ROAR Score to establish the weights.

The portfolio’s automated holdings via that method are updated every day at ROAR.PiTrade.com. Cash (BIL) is used to fill out that portfolio any time the 30 stock weights are not high enough to add to 100%.

Its backtested record starts on 1/1/2020. It shows that when we look at the Dow as something other than the longest-tenured US stock index with a quirky weighting pattern, and actually analyze those 30 stocks carefully, good things can happen.

As you see here, the ROAR Dow 30 portfolio (same stocks, tactical weighting method) has produced much more return with less risk than the standard DIA ETF.

That’s an automated portfolio, run based on the ROAR Score “algorithm” we created. And I created it as a way to help “set it and forget it.” For me, and anyone else who has access to it.

I managed money for more than 30 years before automating anything like that. And as our longtime subscribers know, I’m always looking for an edge. And I supplement my automated portfolio work and bond ladder with some shorter-term trading. Part of that is looking for opportunities within the Dow 30.

To that end, here’s a quick list of the 5 Dow stocks I find most attractive for trading purposes. And the 5 that look most vulnerable here. Here’s what that looks like.

Read more

This week’s title quotes an iconic line from the hit 1990s TV series Seinfeld. If you don’t know it, ask AI or Google it. I promise you, it is worth a minute of your time. Hopefully this is too.

The episode was actually called “The Letter,” so it fits the theme. The ETF whose ticker symbol is a letter. The same letter, 3 times. QQQ. Here’s what I’m seeing right now, at a most critical time for serious investors.

Read more

Learn more at ROAR.PiTrade.com

What Are ROAR Automated Model Portfolios?

• These strategies aren’t your typical “buy and hope” portfolios that leave you exposed to deep crashes, but they aren’t built for a quick endorphin rush either.

• They are automated, rules-based models built on Rob Isbitts’ 30+ years of professional experience in risk-managed investing, as a former CIO and Fund Manager.

• Using our proprietary ROAR Scores, each model selects specific securities, sets strict position boundaries, and rebalances weekly to prioritize discipline over market noise.

• Here are quick explanations of our 7 current automated model portfolios, and a 1-liner summarizing past back-tested performance.

• Premium models are reserved for premium subscribers, and denoted with *

Meet the Model Portfolios

* 10 ETF Portfolio: Smarter allocation, smooth ride

An institutional-grade model that utilizes broad diversification across 10 distinct asset types. This is our premier “capital preservation” model, built to provide steady growth with minimal price swings.

• Performance: Our “Flagship” model. 3/4 of S&P 500 return, worst calendar year: -3%.

Stocks Cash 2-ETF: Simply designed, risk controlled

Our most simplified automated model, allocating tactically between equity (SPY) exposure and cash equivalents (BIL) based on SPY’s ROAR Score. Designed for absolute simplicity and downside protection.

• Performance: Simply elegant. 2/3 of S&P 500 return with less than 1/2 the risk.

Hedged Equity: Pursue growth with crash protection

This automated model is built to participate in equity upside while using internal hedging logic to dampen the impact of market crashes. It is categorized as a “Very Low” risk profile.

• Performance: 10% returns with less than 1/2 the S&P 500’s worst-case scenario.

Pop 10 Stocks: The names you know, with a hedge

A concentrated, systematic strategy that isolates 10 popular U.S. stocks. It is engineered for maximum risk-adjusted efficiency, aiming to beat market returns with lower-than-market volatility.

• Performance: Beat S&P 500 return while taking just 2/3 of its risk.

Dow 30: A smarter way to own Blue Chip stocks

A systematic approach to the blue-chip leaders of the Dow Jones Industrial Average. This model seeks to optimize entry and exit points within the most established companies in the U.S. economy.

• Performance: 1.5x the Dow’s “buy-and-hold” return with 25% less risk.

Q-T-Pi: Growth and innovation with a safety switch

A rules-based strategy that seeks a balance between high-growth technology exposure and market stability. It is designed for investors who want aggressive growth but with a volatility profile similar to the broad market.

• Performance: Captured significantly higher returns than S&P 500 with similar risk.

Go Big Or Go Home: A bull market specialist

A high-velocity, automated momentum strategy designed for aggressive capital appreciation. It leans into market strength to maximize compounding during bull cycles.

• Performance: Our top-tier growth leader, captured 1.5x the S&P 500’s return

📖 Glossary of Terms

• Annualized Return: The average yearly gain over the backtested period.

• Annualized Standard Deviation: A measure of “price swings.” Lower percentages indicate a smoother ride.

• Max Drawdown: The largest peak-to-trough decline experienced in the backtest; the “worst-case” historical scenario.

• Return / Risk Ratio: Measures efficiency—how much return was generated for every unit of volatility taken.

• Return / Max Drawdown: Measures recovery speed relative to the largest historical loss.

For more detailed information on our methodology, individual model construction, and current ROAR Scores, please visit ROAR.PiTrade.com and ETFYourself.com.

Important Disclosures

Not Investment Advice: ETFYourself.com and ROAR.PiTrade.com are impersonal research providers. We are not fiduciaries, and the information provided here does not constitute personalized investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security.

Backtesting Disclosure: These results are based on hypothetical, backtested performance from Jan 1, 2020, to April 17, 2026. Backtested performance is developed with the benefit of hindsight and has inherent limitations. Past performance—especially simulated performance—is no guarantee of future results. All investing involves risk, including the potential loss of principal.

This week, we navigate the “straitjacket” of modern price discovery and dive deep into the rare earth boondoggle. From the “Iranian Roulette” facing investors to the technical rot beneath Apple’s surface, we’re breaking down the charts you can’t afford to ignore.

🌍 Macro & Global Conflict

The geopolitical landscape is shifting faster than the tape. Here is how conflict is reshaping market unity.

• Playing Iranian Roulette: Investors Are Asking Wrong Questions Are you looking at the right risks? We explore the questions the herd is missing.

• A ‘Straitjacket’ on Price Discovery: How the Iran War is Pushing Modern Markets Toward Unity Why “unity” in the markets isn’t always a good thing for your portfolio.

• What In The World? 3 Country ETFs That Look Good Vs. S&P 500 Diversification beyond the US benchmark.

🛠 ETF Strategy & New Alerts

Targeted plays for a complex tape, from rare earths to consumer friction.

• New ETF Alert: This Rare Earth Fund Stands Out in the Crowd A fresh look at a critical sector.

• Dire Straits: This ETF Is a Must-Watch As Rare Earths Become the Real Boondoggle of the Iran War Why this sector is becoming the epicenter of the current conflict’s economic impact.

• Does the QQQ ETF Have a Bad Case of Premature Accumulation? Technical analysis of the tech heavyweight.

• This ETF Is Betting on the Frictionless Consumer. Should You? Analyzing the bet on seamless commerce.

📉 Stock Analysis & Investor Psychology

The “Why” behind the “What.”

• Apple Stock: Why the Dow’s Best-Looking Chart Is Rotting from the Inside Out Don’t let the surface-level price action fool you.

• Social Media Stocks Could Be a High-Risk, High-Reward Bet Amid the Iran War A chart-based look at the volatility in social platforms.

• Why Many (or Most) of Your Stock Picks Have Not Been Successful A candid look at the psychology and strategy of selection.

🚀 Level Up Your Strategy

Reading is the first step; execution is the second. Join our ROAR.PiTrade members every Tuesday at 4 PM EST to discuss these charts live with Rob Isbitts.

• Track Risk: Check out the ROAR score on Pitrade.com.

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That’s a chart of 12-day returns of the S&P 500 ETF (SPY) since March of last year.

Questions:

1. Why go back to that point?

2. And what does it mean for the coming weeks and months for investors?

3. More to the bottom-line, what am I doing about it?

Answers:

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Most investors feel like they’re in the passenger seat, watching the market dictate their future. We’ve spent years perfecting a system that puts you in the driver’s seat using the same institutional-grade research used by the pros.

We are opening our exclusive DIY Investor Package at ROAR.PiTrade.com—a one-of-a-kind, one-stop shop for self-reliant investors who want to manage risk proactively

The standard retail price is $1,000/year, but for a limited time, you can secure our Legacy Rate of $600/year.

What You Get:

• Actionable Intelligence: Weekly ROAR reports, daily market updates, and a Sunday deep-dive.

• The ROAR Toolset: Real-time ROAR Scores on ETFs and stocks, plus pre-built model portfolios (ROAR 10, Dow 30, and more).

• Direct Access: A private chat room and live weekly coaching shows with Rob Isbitts and special guests.

• Portfolio Tools: Build-your-own portfolio tools and customizable watchlists.

Whether you want to do it all yourself or simply “copy off Rob’s paper,” we provide the roadmap.

Click HERE to Upgrade and Unlock the ROAR Hub.

Note: The link will take you to our ROAR.PiTrade site where you will need to create a new login. Billing is handled on the ROAR.PiTrade site. Once you join, we will automatically sync your Substack access to include all paid content.

As a valued member of our ETFYourself.com community, you know our commitment to deep, risk-managed market analysis. But written research is only half the battle.

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April flowers bring May showers. That’s the idea, right? We deal with some rain, and a few weeks later, the flowers start to bloom. But the S&P 500 (SPY) and the rest of the stock market didn’t get the message on that April thing.

For those who have only known buy the dips as business-as-usual investing, I will not pour rain on your first half of April. However, part of being a risk manager, one dedicated to helping others understand how these post-pandemic markets work, I have no choice. I need to remind you that nothing has changed. And that May showers are still a real possibility. Or maybe late April.

Check this out, one of several updates we’ve made to our ROAR.PiTrade.com analytics site since this time last week. Most of those new features have a common purpose: to help you be your own DIY portfolio manager, using the type of research, risk-managed investing process and organization system I used for decades, back when I managed other people’s money.

I’m looking forward to walking our premium subscribers through many of these on the live show today, and for the next few weeks. I truly believe we have created a one of a kind toolkit for investors. Not only to buy and sell ETFs and stocks, but to truly understand who they are as investors. That’s what gets lost in all the Wall Street noise.

Note that ROAR Scores for SPY, QQQ and DIA have all increased to 50. They were 20 not long ago. That’s like falling behind by 4 runs early, and tying the game in the middle innings. But to win the game, you need to get the lead, and hold it.

As we have been reminded constantly this year, the toughest thing for most asset classes to do these days? Sustain upward moves. Otherwise, time creeps up on us. Each time a rally fails, we do what I call “counting backwards.” When it goes on for a little while, that’s OK.

But psychologically, every market cycle has a point at which, like the proverbial frog in boiling water, we see a rally like the one in progress for SPY and the stock market in general, and think “hey, what an awesome market!” We tend to selectively repress the down cycles, until they finally extend out far enough where we can’t help but figure out what’s happening.

This is SPY since the end of last October. Let’s do a Rorschach test. What do you think of this picture? Do you see a market that rallied hard to get back to “not losing” status from 6 months ago? Do you see a rally that promises to lift the market to new all-time highs, on the way to another 15-20% up year?

Here’s what I see

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This week’s live show might be the most valuable one we’ve ever presented. Using the current markets as the setting, Rob will walk you through:

• ROAR: best practices for deciding how to best apply it to your own investing.

• Introduction to the new ROAR.PiTrade.com home page.

• The new ROAR Markets tab: the world at a glance

• Using watchlists to narrow your focus for better decision-making

• Model Portfolios, and how to analyze performance the right way

• Creating your own portfolios

This weekly session is open only to Premium subscribers every Tuesday at 4 PM EST

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This snapshot doesn’t do it justice, as there are 75 market sectors, industries, themes, regions and asset classes in the full table. I’ve only been looking for something like this around my ROAR Score methodology for like, 20 years.

I can’t wait to use it on tomorrow’s live session for premium subscribers, and every session to follow. Best “chalkboard” I’ve ever had!

So, I’m able to do both today: talk, markets, while introducing a new feature. One I think could be as valuable as any other on the site.

This link will get you there, so check it out: https://roar.pitrade.com/marketSummary

Now, let me walk you through what it is, what it says about this War-driven market, and why I think it going to be a game-changer for people who want to manage their own investments.

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