It was a solid October around here. And November is off to a very nice start.

Months like the last one remind me of why, while I’m not the “make me 50% in a year” guy, I AM the defensive coordinator, so to speak.

My research is designed to help investors and financial advisors manage rougth markets. And profit from them. That is on full display right now, across our model portfolios. And in the twice-weekly posts here.

NOTE TO SUBSCRIBERS WITH ACCOUNTS AT SCHWAB:

As noted here recently, we FINALLY have a way for you to access my Hedged Bond ROAR Flex, ROAR 10 and Dow 30 models using your existing Schwab accounts. To include all who are interested, we’re offering a free look this month at our live sessions.

Register HERE for Tuesday’s live Zoom session, where I’ll introduce our new Schwab connection.

Tuesday, November 3, at 4 PM EST.

For those who followed my weekly “Fresh Charts” grid showing what I assessed to be the best and worst chart “setups,” you’ll recall my complaining to myself that I could not find any or many positive setups for weeks.

Then, this happened. And it is still happening. And from the looks of it, in the words of Al Pacino, the stock market is “just getting warmed up!”

So, what do we do about it? Speaking for myself and our subscribers, exactly what we’ve been doing.

1. Using the approach to constructing portfolios I honed over 40 years of market tests, learning from my mistakes more than my successes.

2. Incorporating the ROAR Score, a defensive-minded technical indicator I developed over the decades, then automated in partnership with PiTrade, through our joint research effort, ROAR.PiTrade.com.

The focus here is on 2 things I see investors NOT doing, but should:

1. Think in a portfolio context, and less in terms of this or that ETF or stock.

2. Consider how much they can lose, not just how much they can make.

Funny thing about that: Much of the time, that defense-first approach produces some very competitive returns over time.

After all, when you turn $100 into $50 in a typical stock market bear cycle, you have to double your money just to get back to even.

But if you turn that $100 into $90, $95, or even more than $100 during a bear cycle, you are in great position for the eventual next bull cycle. Why isn’t this more intuitive to investors today? Same answer as why they don’t understand bonds very well. Because

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As shifting macroeconomic currents, evolving tech valuations, and changing fixed-income yields converge, today's market demands a complete recalibration of portfolio risk. Moving past generic headlines and superficial rallies is essential for weathering current pre-election turbulence while positioning capital for long-term resilience.

Register HERE for this week’s session on Tuesday, November 3 at 4 PM EST.

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NOTE TO SUBSCRIBERS WITH ACCOUNTS AT SCHWAB:

As noted here recently, we FINALLY have a way for you to access my Hedged Bond ROAR Flex, ROAR 10 and Dow 30 models using your existing Schwab accounts. To include all who are interested, we’re offering a free look this month at our live sessions.

Register HERE for Tuesday’s live Zoom session, where I’ll introduce the new Schwab connection.

Tuesday, November 3, at 4 PM EST.

If you have not previously expressed interest in this, but would like to be alerted when it is all set, email us at info@sungardeninvestment.com.

As for subscribers with Fidelity accounts, once Schwab is set, the same advisor aims to arrange that connection next. More on that as it develops.

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Thanks to the big group who joined us yesterday! It was a great session full of real-time market analysis, portfolio risk management insights, and a lot of fantastic questions from the community. We also touched on some exciting new developments for our subscribers.

If you missed the live broadcast—or want to rewatch the discussion—we have the full video recording for you below.

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NOTE TO SUBSCRIBERS WITH ACCOUNTS AT SCHWAB:

It looks like we FINALLY have a way for you to access my Hedged Bond and ROAR Flex models there. Using your existing Schwab accounts. An independent investment advisor I’ve worked with in the past and known for more than 20 years is arranging with his firm to be able to take my model signals from ROAR.PiTrade.com and trade them in Schwab accounts.

On today’s live show (register below), I’ll explain in a bit more detail. And by next Tuesday’s live show (11/3, Election Day in the US), I expect to have him join us live, with the model portfolios in place there. From which point any interested subscribers can arrange with him directly. If you have not previously expressed interest in this, but would like to be alerted when it is all set, email us at info@sungardeninvestment.com.

As for subscribers with Fidelity accounts, once Schwab is set, the same advisor aims to arrange that connection next.

Now, let’s get right to it. The markets are on edge. And that’s when narratives are a smokescreen, and price trends tell the real story. Here’s how I see that story right now.

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As high-flying tech catalysts, looming election-season shifts, and changing bond yields reshape the market landscape, investors face a critical inflection point between chasing crowded momentum and protecting capital.

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I track several watchlists. One of them I affectionately call “the Bubble ETF Focus List.” Another is the 20 holdings in ETF ticker TOPT, which contains the 20 largest S&P 500 stock holdings.

I'm showing you a performance table below for both groups. It leads to the following broad conclusion: This market is slipping.

You can see it by looking across the tables, left to right. Lots of red/less green on the left, and more green/less red as you go to the right. There’s a good reason for that. It is

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Let’s start by talking about the above chart. My posture on market return and risk potential starts there. Below, I’ll detail it for you, with a lot of help from the ROAR Score trend data at ROAR.PiTrade.com.

Which One Are You? (hint: there are NO wrong answers)

What becomes clearer to me by the day is that we’re at the stage of the stock market cycle where, based on doing this for 40 years, the investor population is on the way to splitting into two camps.

1. Those who invest intentionally: A process, reasons for each action, a clear set of goals in mind. That includes how much of every $100 that they are willing to risk. And how every decision is part of a broader portfolio picture. This used to be the exclusive domain of professional investment managers. That’s no longer the case, and it has given rise to an era of DIY investing. Some works, a lot that doesn’t.

2. Those who invest based on what sounds and feels good. Perhaps because it is currently popular and working out well so far. They may not have the time and/or willingness to be ardent DIY investors. So, that’s where the “process” ends.

It is nearly six years since we sold our investment advisory firm and became laser-focused on research, publishing, and putting my brand of “thought-leadership” out there for anyone to consume as they wish. And while there will always be an element of that, the more we see the development of those two “camps” above, the more we choose to focus on the first one.

We’ve had a great opportunity to speak to some of our subscribers who I would label as “serious investors.” And the more I talk to them, the more I realize, our mission going forward needs to be more like an “80/20 rule”…or more like 90%/10%.

The Inner Circle: For Dedicated DIY Investors

As I say proudly, “I am an acquired taste.” And since we became semi-retired folk back in early 2020, that has become clearer all the time. And I’m grateful to those who have self-selected to become part of what I affectionately call Sungarden’s “Inner Circle.”

I say that because while there’s always room for more serious investor to “yearn to learn,” I am, at the core, an investment educator. I no longer guide clients 1:1, and my model portfolios are purely what I am doing with my money. So people can learn from them, and invest in them on their own if they so choose.

Frankly, the ROAR Score concept that will guide the paid section of this post is a major part of that. A year ago, I was fortunate enough to have PiTrade.com find me.

I think if you asked their founders, they’d tell you they got a lot more than they bargained for…in both directions! What else would you expect from “Mr. Play Offense And Defense At The Same Time?”

My model portfolios reside on their site, and as often happens when markets dip, several of them are sitting atop the short-term performance leaderboard.

This is not about short-term performance. It is reminder that markets today are simply not what they used to be. What every investor does with that fact is up to them.

For those who have and will step forward and say “coach me,” know that our focus continues to be on you, that “group 1” above. Between my Barchart.com column, my Seeking Alpha articles, my posts here and the free section of ROAR.PiTrade.com, the analytics and DIY portfolio building site I created with PiTrade, there are many ways for people in that “group 2” above to get a sense of what I am saying.

If you want to go to the next level, and apply how I think and operate as an investor to what you want from your own self-directed investing efforts, I invite you to become part of our inner circle.

How? Attend our weekly live show, send questions via our chat, or email us at info@sungardeninvestment.com. As our most tenured subscribers know, we are very much driven by what they collectively tell us they want to learn more about, to help them DIY.

Now, to these markets. First, let’s talk about the US midterm elections coming in two weeks, then that QQQ chart above.

The election is weighing on market activity. I can see the jitters in my daily perusal of charts and chatter. Frankly, I don’t think the market even knows what it wants from the election results on November 3rd. I don’t think we’ll know until it happens.

Why Introspection is a VERY good thing right now

That has me in “no false moves, Rob!” mode in the two model portfolios I run personally, ROAR Flex and Hedged Bond. More and more, I think “it's the bond market’s world, and we’re just living in it.” I have to use that headline above the paywall soon!

That translates to a lower-turnover period currently. But that can change at any time. It is also making me very introspective. This world of Wall Street is so full of arrogance. Everyone knows better. I’m the opposite.

I respect the markets, and I seek to use them for what they are. Not a path to assured wealth like so many seem to nowadays. But a tool for me to learn to use, and never stop learning, to get what I want out of my life, using my invested capital. That’s it folks. That’s investing. And why humility is going to conquer arrogance over time. It always does.

Let’s keep that in mind as I cover some key charts and ROAR Score data, with that election looming. Oh, not to mention earnings season.

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As structural refinancing walls threaten small-cap companies, bond market misunderstandings collide with shifting rate environments, and extreme mega-cap index concentration reaches a breaking point, tactical investors must abandon outdated asset allocation models and actively fortify their portfolios against mounting macroeconomic risks.

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39 and 508. They are related, but don’t add them up. '

Sure, they add up to 547. Feel free to use it as your locker code at the gym or a lucky number in a casino. Just for fun, maybe I’ll drop $1 on a trifecta at Gulfstream Park, simply because I wrote this.

Those figures relate to how I view the current markets, which I’ve come to believe

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Thanks to all who joined us live yesterday. Here is the recording for all who want to review

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Tuesday, October 13 at 4 PM EST

for our next

ROAR.PiTrade Live Session.

Registration below is free to all paid subscribers, as well as the recordings.

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As bond market turbulence intensifies and equity benchmarks wobble near crucial technical boundaries, tactical portfolio managers must pivot fast. This week's breakdown cuts through the market noise to analyze critical shifts across the Treasury yield curve, proactive risk-management plays, and high-yield ETF strategies built to safeguard capital amid shifting rates.

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This is the type of week in my life where so many things become clearer. What was so different, other than the continued rise in bond rates (I like!), the continued slide in small cap stocks (I like!), and the ability of Wall Street to spin anything into a positive (I’ve seen this movie before, and know how it ends!)?

I went on the road. Just for a day. After decades of commuting to an office (first from NJ to NYC, then from my home in Florida to an office 5 minutes away), I’ve worked from home since the pandemic started. So getting out of my cave is very refreshing. It is also why I work from Gulfstream Park once a week when I can.

There, I’m surrounded by buzz, excitement, horse racing, and a great restaurant with great views of the track. On some days, one of the horses I own through the partnership I helped create might even be running that day.

Writing, trading, winner’s circle picture? That’s a trifecta!

I’m guessing I’ve written 500 articles and done hundreds of trades from there. Everyone needs something like that in their life. That’s mine. It helps that I can work outside there most of the year.

This week’s version of “road-tripping” was a lot more tame. Tuesday, I took the excellent but apparently red ink-bleeding Brightline high speed rail from Fort Lauderdale to Orlando, a 3-hour trip.

An Uber to a hotel, 2 live speaking events at the Orlando Money Show, and a “let’s squeeze this in” version of my 4pm ET weekly show later, I was a bit exhausted. Not too exhausted to write this article for Seeking Alpha on the nighttime train ride home, though.

Thanks to those who attended. Some of the best questions we’ve had occurred in that live session. Very much worth the “squeeze.”

My two presentations that day were a bit varied, but I did include a shocker of a list, which I shared on the live show as well. So check out that recording. It is at the start of the show. It takes a lot to shock me, but this did it.

Musings From My Latest Money Show Speaking Appearance

The Money Show is a lot of fun, and typically a very interactive crowd. The first session was really my debut of what the recent E-book was about: the opportunity I see in hedged bond investing.

The second was, to my surprise, a packed house. The title was “Chart Me Up,” and my presentation was brief. A bit about me, a bit about what I look for in a chart (thanks as always to Barchart.com for providing the easiest chart-coaching visuals EVER!). And I used ROAR.PiTrade.com to do my favorite thing: have people fire tickers at me, “Cramer/Mad Money”-style, and I simply tell them what I see.

In fact, it was so engaging and appreciated by that crowd, I decided that should be more the “to the point” format of our weekly live shows. So starting this Tuesday, it will be.

We’re also quickly creating a learning library of short posts from past live shows, so paid subscribers can catch up, brush up, or whatever they like. 20-200 seconds at a time. We’ll post when it is available.

Now, let’s get into it. Rather than the Fresh Charts table I’ve been presenting, which has become an exercise in futility to find quality “long” setups, I’m going to be very “raw” this week. I’ll show you some lowlights and some highlights from my trading accounts.

What’s the point?

I know my industry is all about convincing you they are expert traders. I’m an expert at not losing big on the way to making long-term returns that allow me to live the lifestyle I want in retirement. Big difference!

Part of that for me, and I suspect for many others, is experimenting. Not just to see what works, but what I think is worth the ongoing effort. That includes some of the trade “ideas” I’ve put out here and elsewhere recently.

I had a question about when I would close the QQQ trade I referenced just a few days ago. The “convexity” call options. That means small investment, big potential gains if QQQ flies higher soon. But that I’ll lose the $300 I put up, a risk I was willing to take.

After a nice start (that $300 peaked around $800 or so the next day), they have both tanked. That’s all it takes in that type of low-dollar/high-risk trading. That’s why it is more a part of the “trader’s journey” I convey here.

In other words, do what I say, not what I do

I’m an experienced analyst and coach. And as you will see below, my options trading is about taking big shots with capital I can afford to lose.

Every investor needs to find their “center.”

I’m just here to provide perspective and ongoing stream of consciousness, to provide the “stimulus” that one or more subscribers can benefit from, as they choose.

For every 5-1 or 10-1 “winner” there are many little losers. A lot of times, that nets out to a lot of practice with real money (which is better than paper-trading in my opinion). And if this or that ticker I’m trading has a nice move, that can make up for lots of small, tolerable losses.

As I said to the Money Show crowd on Tuesday, I am moving ever closer to an attitude that says: “Take the 5% or so in bonds, hedge it, and trade around it.” If someone in the audience here can offer me an alternative to that path, I’d love to hear it.

Because buy and hold stock investing, “asset allocation” and the rest of the traditional playbook looks broken to me. It has for a while. It only took bond rates returning to normal to make it apparent to the masses. But here we are.

All the more reason to be a DIY investor, but with non-personalized assistance (like we provide here), from a career analyst that is doing this to “be useful and be paid fairly,” not because his own livelihood relies on “good picks.”

So with that fresh perspective from a long day up and back to Orlando earlier this week, here’s some of the “show me what you are doing” stuff our paid subscribers have been asking for.

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Repeat After Me…

I’ve worked hard.

I’ve built my nest egg.

I just want a reliable, predictable return for the next 15-30 years or so.

So I have one less thing to deal with.

Wait, long-term bonds are now yielding how much?!

Is 5% Return Enough? Why It Might Be.

For much of my investing career, my biggest flaw as obvious to most who knew my: I made investing more complicated than it needs to be. I’ve come to realize, I have a lot of company in that regard!

So in my early 60s, with plenty of great feedback from subscribers and colleagues, I started to rethink how to approach what really is the priority for most Baby Boomers and Gen-X types too:

How much do I need to make in retirement, and for how long?

If you have accumulated enough wealth, your goal isn’t to beat an arbitrary stock market index. Your goal is to map your existing capital against your real-world income needs over a specific timeframe.

And, if you are comfortable allowing a portion of your principal to gradually spend down over your target horizon, securing a 5% baseline floor might get you most of the way there. Just look at how much the entire US Treasury Yield Curve lifted during the first nine months of 2026.

At the end of 2025, the entire curve was below 5%. Less than a year later, bonds from 5 years and longer, out to 30 years, were above that level.

Some would say that’s a problem. I say its a gift!

At least when you consider the long-term history of rates discussed earlier in this E-book. Because barring abnormally high AND persistent inflation for many years to come, 5% “fixed income” return is VERY competitive. And a high enough return to provide tremendous longevity to a retirement cash flow strategy.

I created the Hedged Bond approach, and this E-book, based in large part of that simple premise. I am convinced that this is an opportunity that many must consider.

So I’m leading by example. Everything in this E-book is based on my own investment portfolio.

Why Reading This E-Book might help you.

If you were highly confident you could build a long-term retirement portfolio around a 5% target floor—regardless of what happens with the stock market, interest rates, inflation, or major lifestyle changes—how much of your portfolio would you invest at that 5% target right now?

Take a second and give that an actual number. 20%? 40%? Half your net worth?

This isn’t a trick question, nor is it a guarantee of market returns. It is a fundamental question about how you structure your wealth in an uncertain world.

If your answer is more than zero, keep reading. Because I’m about to break down is the single most overlooked, mismanaged, and misunderstood opportunity in modern investing: the bond side of your ledger.

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Rob will be doing a brief AMA live session today from the Money Show at 4 PM. Register below

For anyone on the Orlando area, Rob will be speaking at The Money Show today, Tuesday, October 6, 2026. See HERE for more details!

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Separately, they might not mean much. Just charts on a list of many I track constantly. But my job is to piece the story together. Then act on it in my own portfolio, and tell our subscribers about it. So they can either take that research in, alongside the other sources they use, or simply push a couple of buttons and mimic what I do.

These will all be familiar to those who have read my work for a while. I own some (long or inverse), others are more like benchmarks, gauges of market health I’ve used for years. However it is how they play off of each other that is my 7-ETF “cocktail” for this week’s report. Here are the 7, their ROAR Scores, some charts, and my latest take:

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