The market is flashing some incredibly mixed signals right now. While tech continues to dominate the headlines, underneath the surface, traditional safe havens are crumbling and volatility is hiding in plain sight.

If you are looking for clarity in a market that feels like it’s holding its breath, you’re in the right place. Here is what you need to know this week to protect your portfolio—and profit from the rotation.

🔥 The Big Story: A Tech Top and Nvidia’s High Stakes

• Why the Earnings Report Reaction in Nvidia Stock Matters So Much More This Time Nvidia isn’t just a stock anymore; it’s the bellwether for the entire market. Here is why the reaction to their upcoming earnings could dictate the direction of your portfolio for the rest of the year.

• These 3 AI ETFs Could Be the First to Kill the Stock Market Rally The AI euphoria has been the rising tide lifting all boats, but these three highly concentrated ETFs are showing signs of exhaustion. If they break, the broader market rally could go down with them.

• As Chip Stocks Warn Of ‘Empire State Building’ Top, How To Profit No Matter What Happens Next Semiconductors have built a towering, “Empire State”-style chart pattern. If you know what to look for, you don’t have to fear the drop—here is how to position yourself to win regardless of the fallout.

⚠️ Market Mechanics: The Hidden Dangers

• The VIX and SPY Are Falling at the Same Time. Don’t Get Trapped by Volatility Hiding in a Market Blind Spot. Usually, when the market goes up, the fear gauge goes down. But right now, both the S&P 500 and the VIX are falling simultaneously. This rare divergence is a massive blind spot for retail investors.

• Consumer Staples Are Losing Their Safe-Haven Status. Here’s Why. When the going gets tough, investors usually hide in consumer staples. Not anymore. We break down why the ultimate defensive sector is suddenly losing its armor.

💎 The Hidden Gem of 2026

• The $43 Billion ETF Hiding in Plain Sight. Why DIA Might Outperform SPY and QQQ for the Rest of 2026. Forget the tech-heavy Nasdaq and the S&P 500. There is a massive, $43 billion rotation happening right under our noses. Here is why the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DIA) might just be the best place for your capital through the end of the year.

🚀 Level Up Your Strategy

Reading is the first step; execution is the second.

• Join the Community: Meet our ROAR.PiTrade members every Tuesday at 4 PM EST to discuss these charts live with Rob Isbitts. Register HERE.

• Track Risk: Monitor macro market conditions dynamically. Check out the ROAR score on Pitrade.com.

• Get the Charts: Dig into the technicals yourself. Start a 30-Day Free Trial of BarChart Premier.

• Deep Research: Expand your toolkit. Get $30 off Seeking Alpha Premium.

Read more

🚗 Tech & The EV Evolution

• DRIV Vs. KARS: 2 Electric Vehicle ETFs That Drive Very Differently – Not all EV funds are built the same. Here is how these two diverge.

⚠️ Market Concentration & Bubble Warnings

• The Cerebras IPO Is a Clear Sign That the Stock Market Is ‘Wafer Thin’ – A telling indicator of just how top-heavy this market has become.

• The DRAM ETF’s Record Success Warns of a Dot-Com Bubble Burst. We’re Just Waiting for the Explosion. – Tech concentration is reaching dangerous historical parallels.

• The QQQ ETF Has Summited a Very Large Mountain. Make Sure You’re Ready for When It Climbs Back Down. – Gravity always wins. Are your defensive strategies in place?

💰 Income & Dividend Realities

• QQQI: The Income Feels Good But the Bear Market Won’t – High yields are masking some serious downside risk.

• Yield Is No Longer King: What These 5 Dividend ETFs Are Telling Investors – Dividend strategies are shifting under the surface.

📊 Tactical Setups & Market Caps

• Monster Stocks Are Eating Wall Street. Here’s the Bull Case for Microcaps, Plus 3 Top Charts – Megacaps dominate, but the real upside might be hiding in these charts.

• Why the Hard Times for Software Stocks May Be Over, At Least for a Little While – A short-term tactical window might be opening up.

• Moderna Stock Is Surging on Hantavirus Threats. Its Chart Offers a Harsh Dose of Reality. – Don’t chase the headline; read the technical setup first.

🛡️ Macro Risk & Defensive Plays

• 1 Rapidly Deteriorating ETF Screams That ‘Shop ‘Til You Drop’ Americans Have All But Keeled Over – Retail data is flashing a major warning sign.

• Michael Burry Says the Stock Market Has ‘Jumped the Shark.’ If He’s Right, This ETF Will Be Your Chum. – How to protect your capital if the “Big Short” manager is right again.

• If the Iran War Doesn’t End Soon, Be Ready for This ETF to Explode Higher Again – Geopolitical risk is mispriced in this specific sector.

🚀 Level Up Your Strategy

Reading is the first step; execution is the second.

• Join the Community: Meet our ROAR.PiTrade members every Tuesday at 4 PM EST to discuss these charts live with Rob Isbitts. Register HERE.

• Track Risk: Monitor macro market conditions dynamically. Check out the ROAR score on Pitrade.com.

• Get the Charts: Dig into the technicals yourself. Start a 30-Day Free Trial of BarChart Premier.

• Deep Research: Expand your toolkit. Get $30 off Seeking Alpha Premium.

Hopefully, the headline for this post is taken in the good spirit which which it is intended. Since it is a play on mainstream expression, used by edgy comedians and presumedly no one else.

Before I explain exactly what I think is going on here in mid-May 2026, with the stock market setting records seemingly every day, here’s a quick update on one of the model portfolios at ROAR.PiTrade.com. Most of those are free if you simply sign up for the site with an email. It is non-personalized investment research, provided by us, to be used if/as an investor chooses. This post is one of several I’ll be delivering here, primarily to help our audience better understand 2 things:

1. Investing doesn’t have to be complicated (the portfolio below owns 3 ETFs)

2. Until you understand how return and risk work TOGETHER, you’re just gambling

While each of these portfolios has a specific “benchmark” that we compare it to based on how much risk it takes (conservative, moderate, etc.), I’m showing you all of these against the S&P 500 (SPY) ETF, since that’s an easier frame of reference for many investors.

The point is this

If it is a piece of that “action” you seek as an investor, there are ways to go about it that ALSO manage risk, all along the way. Here is one of my favorite ways.

Our paid subscribers see them all, updated regularly.

Subscribe now

This is a model portfolio we call Hedged Equity. If you go to the site, you can see the current holdings. This is one of 7 models currently on the site. A few more are on the way soon.

Hedged Equity is pretty straightforward: SPY, BIL, VIXY. That’s stocks, cash and a volatility ETF whose main role is to mute the impact of “surprise attacks” by the stock market. It is up about 7% so far this year. That trails SPY, but is above the return of the average S&P 500 stock (RSP). And when SPY fell 9% earlier this year, Hedged Equity was down 2.7%. Thus, the model portfolio name.

If we go back to what I believe is the start of the modern investing era (1/1/2020), here’s Hedged Equity versus SPY. No, it didn’t approach SPY’s 15% annualized return. It “only” gained about 11% annualized. But its worst-case scenario was less than half that of SPY.

Share

And perhaps the most “bottom line” aspect of it is the last row of info above. It actually produced ALPHA versus SPY. That simply means that pound for pound, adjusting for risk, it did better. It took about 2/5 of the risk (Beta=0.39%), but still made double-digit gains.

Subscribe now

In my experience in managing other people’s money as I did for decades, the one thing I always emphasized about past performance when clients asked, is this:

Returns are inconsistent. But the process used to manage risk isn’t. That makes risk-managed portfolios more likely to succeed.

The stock market, at least the headline versions of it, are doing great. And that will continue…until it doesn’t. And when morale crashes, when liqudity is not as robust, when 401(k) flows into S&P 500 index funds taper off or reverse, when interest rates get too high to ignore and/or when inflation does, the cycle will repeat itself. Markets will crash, and with it, investor morale.

That’s when investors will separate into 2 camps:

1. Those who understand how pursuing return and managing risk work together to promote long-term success with less stress.

2. The rest.

ETFYourself.com exists to help investors. Not primarily through “picks” but through portfolios. Leading by example, and coaching on the aspects of investing that truly make the difference over time.

Subscribe now

I recently submitted an article to a publication that was not viewed to be in sync with their guidelines. It happens. But I felt so strongly about the message, rather than try to update it to fit a mold, I realized it was very much in line with what we try to do here at ETFYourself, where my most unfiltered material lives. That’s no different from anyone else on the Substack platform.

So I’m using that timely message as the main segment of today’s Weekly ROAR.

First, a quick reminder:

What are we trying to coach here?

• Learn yourself as an investor - we are all different

• Learn to invest for growth (“offense”) with greater understanding of how much risk you are taking.

• Proactively add hedging mechanisms (“defense”) to the mix, in whatever manner and degree you prefer. Since that is de-emphasized, especially now, 17 years after the last true bear market ended.

• Provide a set of tools (model portfolios), from simple-and-effective 2-ETF mixes to active stock portfolios, that you can use as a research reference, as a trade-by-trade guide, or as an outsourced/automated portfolio manager.

And, some added perks, like today’s live session on using a bond ladder to enhance long-term returns and lower risk. I’ll explain why it is the largest single segment of my own portfolio, then show you how to build one yourself.

Now, today’s Weekly ROAR

Read more

📈 Market Trends & Analysis

Stay ahead of the curve with these deep dives into current market dynamics and volatility.

• Don’t Trust This Top-Heavy Stock Market, Hedge It. Here’s Your Roadmap.

• Bye Bye, Volatility: 1 Blockchain ETF to Watch Now as Bitcoin Prices Stabilize

• Solar ETFs Are Shockingly Cheap Now. Politics Will Decide If They’ll Burn You to a Crisp

🎯 ETF Strategies & Picks

Specific plays for growth, income, and tactical positioning.

• This ETF Is Flying High Again. Here’s How to Tell If It Will Continue.

• Bigger Isn’t Always Better: Why This Small-Cap ETF Is a Top Play for a Go-Go Stock Market

• My Favorite Dividend ETF? None. Why Bonds Might Be Better For A While

• IWC: The Smallest Of The Smallcaps Is Making A Big Move. It’s Part Of My 10-ETF Portfolio

🌏 Global & Alternative Opportunities

Looking beyond the standard U.S. equity playbook.

• U.S. Investors Should Be Jealous of the Historic Rate-Cut Cycle Happening in Mexico. Here’s 2 Ways to Profit.

• Wall Street Is Bullish on These 2 Asia ETFs. It’s Time to Party Like It’s the 1980s.

• If You’re Still Buying Gold ETFs to Protect Against Inflation, Stop

🚀 Level Up Your Strategy

Reading is the first step; execution is the second.

• Join the Community: Meet our ROAR.PiTrade members every Tuesday at 4 PM EST to discuss these charts live with Rob Isbitts. Register HERE.

• Track Risk: Check out the ROAR score on Pitrade.com.

• Get the Charts: Start a 30-Day Free Trial of BarChart Premier.

• Deep Research: Get $30 off Seeking Alpha Premium.

THANK YOU.

Our transition to a consolidated service that teaches you to be your own portfolio manager is now complete. I guess April showers really do bring May flowers!

They did for this community, as you now have one packaged service to hear directly from me, chat with me and use my 40 years of professional investing however you wish. So you can be the Y in “DIY Investor.”

That’s a good time to remind all subscribers (even if you are simply touring as a free member)…we provide a ton of free learning material at ETFYourself.com.

“Evergreen” articles that focus not on “what to buy now” but on “how to think like a serious investor.” That includes topics such as:

• Putting defense first, to achieve better long-term returns

• Why tactical investing is no longer a choice for successful investing. Buy and hold has gone and went.

• Holding cash (via ETFs) is not a sign of weakness. It is what savvy investors do when markets lack direction and/or any sense of stability (like now).

• How to use charting (technical analysis) as a risk-management weapon. Most writing about ETF and stock charting is geared to traders. We go beyond that.

• How to truly understand what ETFs are, and are not. So you can use them well.

• How to create a portfolio that works for you, not a “collection of investments.”

• How to figure out who you are as an investor. Then manage your assets to it.

That’s all part of the free material here. Soak it in.

And, if you have not yet joined us as a paid subscriber, we’ve consolidated our offering:

• $150/year gets you all of the writing behind the paywall as they say (ETFYourself.com)

• $600/year gets you ETFYourself.com AND full access to ROAR.PiTrade.com, where you can build your own portfolios, or “copy off of my paper in class” by simply following one the models I created and use myself. They range from simple-but-effective 2-ETF portfolios to ROAR 10 ETF, the most popular member of the squad, since it is the closest to what I did professionally during my advisory and fund management career.

Note that this combined service will be priced at $600 for another 26 days. After May 31, the price will adjust to $1,000 a year.

Why are we worth it?

We take risk management more seriously than “set it and forget it” approaches to ETF portfolios. Preventing major losses along the way to long-term success requires the willingness to be as proactive as necessary, when necessary.

How do our portfolios do this?

By combining ETFs in our specific way, we avoid the “silent killer” of portfolio management: redundancy from owning dozens of ETFs or hundreds of stocks that represent too small a part of the portfolio to matter significantly. The goal is not to build a “collection of securities.” It is to build a portfolio that works like a machine, manages risk, and grows over time.

ROAR.PiTrade.com: automated, discliplined, research-driven investment portfolios at your fingertips, for you to:

1. Use them as a research core from which to build your own portfolios

2. Follow them and trade them yourself

3. Have them traded for you (free using the PiTrade.com app)

   ROAR here

Now, let’s talk about these markets, as the DIY portfolio managers we are.

I see 3 things right now that will determine whether the rest of 2026 will be a good, bad or ugly. And I do not think they are the things everyone is talking about.

Read more

📈 The Sunday Edition: Market Trends | ETF Strategies | Myth-Busting

Your weekly roadmap to navigating the noise and finding the signal.

🛡️ Core Strategy & Portfolio Construction

Before diving into the headlines, start with the foundation. Whether you are looking for a tactical edge or a simplified approach, these guides have you covered.

• My 10-ETF Approach: A Timely Update In 2 Forms - Permanent Portfolio And Tactical Portfolio

• This Simple 2-ETF Mix May Spell The End Of 60/40 Portfolio Mania

🤖 The AI & Tech Revolution

From the “circulatory system” of AI to record-breaking compute spending, tech remains the primary market driver.

• Compute Spending Just Broke the Dot-Com Record High. Here’s the Safe Way to Invest in AI Now…. Just in Case.

• Dan Ives’ Latest AI ETF Goes Beyond the Mag 7, Focusing on the ‘Circulatory System’ of a Tech Revolution

• Semiconductor Stocks Are the New Elephant in the Room at 14% of the S&P 500. How to Play This Tech Super-Sector

• Why Rambus Stock’s Post-Earnings Plunge Might Be a Canary in the Coal Mine for AI Stocks

• 5 Magnificent 7 Stocks Report Earnings This Week. Here’s What to Watch for Each.

🛰️ Emerging Frontiers: Space, Prediction Markets, & Shorts

Innovation isn’t just in software; it’s in how we trade and where we travel.

• Will the SpaceX IPO Take Tema’s Space ETF (NASA) to the Moon?

• New ETF Filings Tout Ways to Play Prediction Markets with Your Retirement Savings. A Lot Could Go Wrong.

• Sell the News? You Can Now Bet Against Sandisk Stock Twice Over with This New ETF

⚠️ Risk Management & Macro Watch

Between Fed “Shadow Chairs” and plunging stocks, risk management is non-negotiable this week.

• Kevin Warsh Has Been Labeled a ‘Sock Puppet.’ A Potential Federal Reserve ‘Shadow Chair’ Is a Much Greater Threat for Investors.

• Avis Budget Stock Falls 75% in 4 Days. Should You Buy the CAR Crash?

• Let’s Get This Strait: Ignore Energy Prices at Your Own Peril (and 3 ETFs to Buy Now)

• These 3 Charts Look Like Thoroughbreds: Get Derby-Ready With My Racetrack-to-SPY Roadmap

🚀 Level Up Your Strategy

Reading is the first step; execution is the second.

• Join the Community: Meet our ROAR.PiTrade members every Tuesday at 4 PM EST to discuss these charts live with Rob Isbitts.

• Track Risk: Check out the ROAR score on Pitrade.com.

• Get the Charts: Start a 30-Day Free Trial of BarChart Premier.

• Deep Research: Get $30 off Seeking Alpha Premium.

I grew up in Bergen County, the northern end of New Jersey. Dana and I moved to South Florida in the late 1990s. If you ever wondered about the derivation of the SUNGARDEN name, that’s it. We moved to the Sunshine State from the Garden State.

But we didn’t leave the memories behind. As a young Wall Streeter in the 1980s and 1990s, the pre-internet age, one of my favorite things was to walk past the newstands in NYC and see what the latest New York Post headlines were. Especially when it came to sports. It was like every day was a new classic.

Whoever wins the KY Derby, the headlines will be epic

So in that spirit, and since I’m a big fan of the sport of horse racing, I put together my best guess (or suggestions, if anyone from the NY Post or other papers are reading this). There are 20 horses expected to run in Saturday’s Kentucky Derby at iconic Churchill Downs in Louisville, Kentucky.

While there are certainly favorites in the race, any horse can win. It is like a stock with a ROAR Score of 10 spiking higher just a few weeks later. It can happen. Just as a ROAR Score of 80 can precede a decline. They are odds, not certainties.

OK, I promised you yesterday that this post would be about something other than investing. So back to the Derby. And the post, as in NY Post-inspired.

Here are my suggestions for Sunday morning’s headlines to celebrate the winner of horse racing’s “Saturday Super Bowl.” There’s one for each of the 20 entries.

And if this inspires you to come up with some of your own, send them to me in the chat here. That way, if the editors of the big papers do contact me for suggestions, I can include yours too :-)

Enjoy the Derby!

Headlines I’d like to see if this horse wins the Kentucky Derby

(presented in post position order)

1. Renegade: RENEGADE STYX TO BUSINESS! (1980's rock reference)

2. Albus: ALBUS-TING OUT!

3. Intrepido: PIER-LESS (Intrepid Sea, Air & Space Museum is at NYC’s Pier 86)

4. Litmus Test: PASSING THE TEST!

5. Commandment: THOU SHALT NOT LOSE!

6. Danon Bourbon: HE’LL DRINK TO THAT

7. So Happy: HAPPINESS IN LOUISVILLE!

8. The Puma: KING OF THE JUNGLE!

9. Wonder Dean: WONDER KID

10. Incredibolt: BOLT OF LIGHTNING!

11. Chief Wallabee: HAIL TO THE CHIEF!

12. Potente: HIGH POTENCY!

13. Emerging Market: EMERGED!

14. Pavlovian: RING THAT BELL! DERBY WINNER RESPONDS.

15. Six Speed: SIX IS ENOUGH!

16. Further Ado: JUST ADO IT! (or MUCH ADO ABOUT WINNING!)

17. Golden Tempo: GOLDEN BOY!

18. Great White: SHARK ATTACK!

    or WE’RE GONNA NEED A BIGGER TROPHY! (reference to movie “Jaws”)

19. Ocelli: BIG TIME CELLY!

20. Robusta: BUSTING OUT!

Earlier today, my latest article at Seeking Alpha (where I publish under Sungarden Investment Publishing), gave my updated views on 60/40 portfolios. I’ve been chronicling this popular but highly overrated attempt to simplify investing for the masses for a long time. In fact, if you simply go into your favorite AI and type what does Rob Isbitts think of 60/40? you’ll get more than you bargained for!

Seeking Alpha is a subscription platform, and a very good one. But I think they may allow non-subscribers to read one or two articles a month to try it out. So if that link above works, you can try to check it out directly. Subscribers there, whether you follow me there or not, can find it easily.

Those articles are often more detailed than many of my posts here, as that’s the idea of Seeking Alpha. So from time to time, if I write something there that is based on large part on the key tenets of what we do here at ETFYourself.com (writing) and at ROAR.PiTrade.com (portfolio-building and model access), I want you to see it too.

There are some limits to re-purposing that material, but I am able to deliver essentially a “highlights” version. And that’s what I’m doing here. Because the simplicity of the little research exercise I did in that article is precisely what I’ve been emphasizing in live sessions and in my blog work here.

I hope this version helps you stay informed. I think this it covers one of the most important DIY investing topics of our time. And few people are in the position I am to discuss it freely. I explain here:

Subscribe now

Read more

With all the years I’ve spent investing and writing about it, it is always easier to be myself when I’m receiving the questions to answer, not performing both roles. So I was thrilled and grateful to Elizabeth Volk, Sarah Holzmann and the team at Barchart when they sought me out for an article titled, What You Don't Know About ETFs Might Hurt You. Rob's Here To Help.

If you want a quick glimpse of investing philosophy and strategy I use to run both our weekly live show (like today’s at 4PM EST), and my own family’s portfolio, that article might be the best one I’ve seen. Because someone else was asking me about it.

Now, on to this week’s report. I wrote a more stock-centic article on a stock known as Rambus (RMBS) for my column at Barchart.com, and decided I see too much going on to not use a similar title here. By “too much” I mean too much that reminds me of past eras I’ve managed money through that ended well for risk managers, but not for most investors. Why??

Because most investors are not risk managers

They should learn to be, and that’s what this site and my semi-retired career is at this point. Your screen is flooded constantly with ways to make money from rising stock prices.

What happens when the way to make money is by doing everything except waiting around for stock prices to go up?

ETFYourself.com and our new packaged research service with ROAR.PITrade.com is devoted not to replacing the more “exciting” sites investors flock to in bull markets. I say, enjoy that! But since defense matters too, and knowing how to play it is best not left to the last minute? This is why we exist.

And this is why this week’s topic drills down on that risk management concept, using the most timely, actionable examples I could find. Here we go…

Read more

Welcome to this week's breakdown. We’re cutting through the noise to focus on what actually moves the needle—from the "5% Rule" for retirees to the high-stakes future of AI and Tesla.

🔍 Featured Analysis: The New Retirement Blueprint

• Forget The 4% Rule, Here’s The 5% Rule For Retirees Traditional wisdom is changing. We break down why the old 4% withdrawal standard might be holding you back and how a zero-coupon bond ladder offers a predictable 5% alternative in today’s environment.

  ---

⚡ The AI & Tech Report

• IBM, Honeywell, and Cisco Stocks Remind Us That If You’re Not Invested in AI, You’re Losing in Today’s Market Legacy tech giants are fighting for their share of the AI revolution.

• How AI Ate the S&P 500 — And What It Means for Investors Understanding what extreme concentration means for your diversification.

• The QQQ Chart Hints at 2 Extremes: Either a Dot-Com Bubble Burst or a Technical Breakout Ahead Are we looking at a bubble or a massive breakout?

• This New ETF Could Soon Be a Big Hit Or a Distant Memory: Why DRAM Is As Good As the AI Trade Allows It to Be The high stakes of the DRAM and AI trade.

🛡️ Risk & Opportunity

• Tesla’s Business Is at a Historic Crossroads, but What About Its Stock Price? Historic business challenges vs. stock price reality.

• This Cybersecurity ETF Just Suffered a Pullback. Should You Buy the Dip? Deciding if it's time to buy the dip on this vital sector.

• Can Ethereum Make a Giant Comeback? Here’s the Bull Case. Analyzing the potential for a crypto resurgence.

• The Iran War Has Made Oil Prices a Moving Target. That’s Why This ETF and Option Combination Makes Sense. Navigating war volatility with smart ETF and option combinations.

• Catching the Falling Knife: Are These 4 Loser Stocks Down 50% or More Worth the Risk? Analyzing 4 stocks down 50%+ to see if they're worth the risk.

• UnitedHealth Is Back! But Should You ‘Long-Term Care’ About UNH Stock? Is it time to care about this healthcare leader?

🚀 Level Up Your Strategy

Reading is the first step; execution is the second. Join our ROAR.PiTrade members every Tuesday at 4 PM EST to discuss these charts live with Rob Isbitts.

• Track Risk: Check out the ROAR score on Pitrade.com.

• Get the Charts: Start a 30-Day Free Trial of BarChart Premier.

• Deep Research: Get $30 off Seeking Alpha Premium.

Subscribe now

The S&P 500 (SPY) and Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) get all the street cred. Me? I’m a Dow 30 fan, but not because of the weighting system, where that set of blue chip stocks is allocated by stock price instead of the usual company size (a.k.a. market capitalization).

I like the Dow because, of the 3 major US stock market measures, it is the only one not currently overloaded with tech stocks. So when I look at the Dow 30, the holdings in ETF ticker DIA, I am not looking at their relative size. I am simply analyzing 30 companies that have been selected to try to represent the US economy. It is a manageable and diverse basket.

As I wrote here recently, one of the model portfolios I run (it is one of my personal favorites) takes the Dow 30, owns all of them at all times, but uses my ROAR Score to establish the weights.

The portfolio’s automated holdings via that method are updated every day at ROAR.PiTrade.com. Cash (BIL) is used to fill out that portfolio any time the 30 stock weights are not high enough to add to 100%.

Its backtested record starts on 1/1/2020. It shows that when we look at the Dow as something other than the longest-tenured US stock index with a quirky weighting pattern, and actually analyze those 30 stocks carefully, good things can happen.

As you see here, the ROAR Dow 30 portfolio (same stocks, tactical weighting method) has produced much more return with less risk than the standard DIA ETF.

That’s an automated portfolio, run based on the ROAR Score “algorithm” we created. And I created it as a way to help “set it and forget it.” For me, and anyone else who has access to it.

I managed money for more than 30 years before automating anything like that. And as our longtime subscribers know, I’m always looking for an edge. And I supplement my automated portfolio work and bond ladder with some shorter-term trading. Part of that is looking for opportunities within the Dow 30.

To that end, here’s a quick list of the 5 Dow stocks I find most attractive for trading purposes. And the 5 that look most vulnerable here. Here’s what that looks like.

Read more

This week’s title quotes an iconic line from the hit 1990s TV series Seinfeld. If you don’t know it, ask AI or Google it. I promise you, it is worth a minute of your time. Hopefully this is too.

The episode was actually called “The Letter,” so it fits the theme. The ETF whose ticker symbol is a letter. The same letter, 3 times. QQQ. Here’s what I’m seeing right now, at a most critical time for serious investors.

Read more

This week, we navigate the “straitjacket” of modern price discovery and dive deep into the rare earth boondoggle. From the “Iranian Roulette” facing investors to the technical rot beneath Apple’s surface, we’re breaking down the charts you can’t afford to ignore.

🌍 Macro & Global Conflict

The geopolitical landscape is shifting faster than the tape. Here is how conflict is reshaping market unity.

• Playing Iranian Roulette: Investors Are Asking Wrong Questions Are you looking at the right risks? We explore the questions the herd is missing.

• A ‘Straitjacket’ on Price Discovery: How the Iran War is Pushing Modern Markets Toward Unity Why “unity” in the markets isn’t always a good thing for your portfolio.

• What In The World? 3 Country ETFs That Look Good Vs. S&P 500 Diversification beyond the US benchmark.

🛠 ETF Strategy & New Alerts

Targeted plays for a complex tape, from rare earths to consumer friction.

• New ETF Alert: This Rare Earth Fund Stands Out in the Crowd A fresh look at a critical sector.

• Dire Straits: This ETF Is a Must-Watch As Rare Earths Become the Real Boondoggle of the Iran War Why this sector is becoming the epicenter of the current conflict’s economic impact.

• Does the QQQ ETF Have a Bad Case of Premature Accumulation? Technical analysis of the tech heavyweight.

• This ETF Is Betting on the Frictionless Consumer. Should You? Analyzing the bet on seamless commerce.

📉 Stock Analysis & Investor Psychology

The “Why” behind the “What.”

• Apple Stock: Why the Dow’s Best-Looking Chart Is Rotting from the Inside Out Don’t let the surface-level price action fool you.

• Social Media Stocks Could Be a High-Risk, High-Reward Bet Amid the Iran War A chart-based look at the volatility in social platforms.

• Why Many (or Most) of Your Stock Picks Have Not Been Successful A candid look at the psychology and strategy of selection.

🚀 Level Up Your Strategy

Reading is the first step; execution is the second. Join our ROAR.PiTrade members every Tuesday at 4 PM EST to discuss these charts live with Rob Isbitts.

• Track Risk: Check out the ROAR score on Pitrade.com.

• Get the Charts: Start a 30-Day Free Trial of BarChart Premier.

• Deep Research: Get $30 off Seeking Alpha Premium.

Subscribe now

That’s a chart of 12-day returns of the S&P 500 ETF (SPY) since March of last year.

Questions:

1. Why go back to that point?

2. And what does it mean for the coming weeks and months for investors?

3. More to the bottom-line, what am I doing about it?

Answers:

Subscribe now

Read more

April flowers bring May showers. That’s the idea, right? We deal with some rain, and a few weeks later, the flowers start to bloom. But the S&P 500 (SPY) and the rest of the stock market didn’t get the message on that April thing.

For those who have only known buy the dips as business-as-usual investing, I will not pour rain on your first half of April. However, part of being a risk manager, one dedicated to helping others understand how these post-pandemic markets work, I have no choice. I need to remind you that nothing has changed. And that May showers are still a real possibility. Or maybe late April.

Check this out, one of several updates we’ve made to our ROAR.PiTrade.com analytics site since this time last week. Most of those new features have a common purpose: to help you be your own DIY portfolio manager, using the type of research, risk-managed investing process and organization system I used for decades, back when I managed other people’s money.

I’m looking forward to walking our premium subscribers through many of these on the live show today, and for the next few weeks. I truly believe we have created a one of a kind toolkit for investors. Not only to buy and sell ETFs and stocks, but to truly understand who they are as investors. That’s what gets lost in all the Wall Street noise.

Note that ROAR Scores for SPY, QQQ and DIA have all increased to 50. They were 20 not long ago. That’s like falling behind by 4 runs early, and tying the game in the middle innings. But to win the game, you need to get the lead, and hold it.

As we have been reminded constantly this year, the toughest thing for most asset classes to do these days? Sustain upward moves. Otherwise, time creeps up on us. Each time a rally fails, we do what I call “counting backwards.” When it goes on for a little while, that’s OK.

But psychologically, every market cycle has a point at which, like the proverbial frog in boiling water, we see a rally like the one in progress for SPY and the stock market in general, and think “hey, what an awesome market!” We tend to selectively repress the down cycles, until they finally extend out far enough where we can’t help but figure out what’s happening.

This is SPY since the end of last October. Let’s do a Rorschach test. What do you think of this picture? Do you see a market that rallied hard to get back to “not losing” status from 6 months ago? Do you see a rally that promises to lift the market to new all-time highs, on the way to another 15-20% up year?

Here’s what I see

Read more

This snapshot doesn’t do it justice, as there are 75 market sectors, industries, themes, regions and asset classes in the full table. I’ve only been looking for something like this around my ROAR Score methodology for like, 20 years.

I can’t wait to use it on tomorrow’s live session for premium subscribers, and every session to follow. Best “chalkboard” I’ve ever had!

So, I’m able to do both today: talk, markets, while introducing a new feature. One I think could be as valuable as any other on the site.

This link will get you there, so check it out: https://roar.pitrade.com/marketSummary

Now, let me walk you through what it is, what it says about this War-driven market, and why I think it going to be a game-changer for people who want to manage their own investments.

Subscribe now

Read more

The market foundation is shifting. From geopolitical flashpoints in the Middle East to a "bottom-up" weakness in the S&P 500, passive "buy and hold" strategies are being put to the test. Here is your roadmap for the week.

⚠️ The Big Picture: A Weakening S&P 500

Despite the surface-level stability, the internal mechanics of the market are flashing warning signs.

• S&P 500: A Dead Money Era May Be Here, How To Thrive In It – Why your portfolio might stall if you don’t adapt.

• S&P 500: This Is Still A Very Weak Market From A Bottom-Up View – Peeking under the hood of the current index strength.

• The VIX Just Broke Under 20: Here’s What That Really Means – Decoding the recent shift in volatility.

🌍 Geopolitical Edge: The Iran-Israel Impact

With the Strait of Hormuz remaining a critical focal point, capital is rotating rapidly into defense and energy.

• 3 ETFs That May Offer Peace of Mind in the Iran War – Defensive postures for uncertain times.

• Traders Are Running to These Sector ETFs as the Strait of Hormuz Remains Closed – High-stakes moves in the energy corridor.

• When the Iran War Calms Down, This ETF Should Go Strait Up – The specific recovery play to watch.

🛠️ Tactical Moves & ETF Showdowns

Whether you’re looking for aggressive growth or sophisticated protection, these tactical deep-dives have you covered.

• QQQ Just Met Its Match With This New ETF – Why this newcomer is a win for tech investors.

• 3 Big Stocks That Are Great Fits For An Option ‘Dog Collar’ – Sophisticated hedging for your core holdings.

• Want to Ride the Rally? The Ultimate ‘Go Big or Go Home’ Strategy – For those looking to maximize momentum.

• Is the Retail Sector Having a Resurgence? – Analyzing the latest retail ETF charts.

💰 Income & Sector Spotlights

Don’t ignore the rotation into yield and specific industry turnarounds.

• Bonds Are No Longer a Legacy Asset: Don’t Miss This Income Opportunity – Locking in yield as stocks flash “dead money.”

• Delta Pops, Oil Drops, Will It Stop? – Trading the airline vs. energy volatility.

• The UnitedHealth Comeback – If you are buying the UNH story, buy this ETF too.Now.

🚀 Level Up Your Strategy

Reading is the first step; execution is the second. Join our Premium Members this Tuesday to discuss these charts live with Rob Isbitts.

• Track Risk: Check your ROAR score on Pitrade.com.

• Get the Charts: Start a 30-Day Free Trial of BarChart Premier.

• Deep Research: Get $30 off Seeking Alpha Premium.

Subscribe now

I buy the biggest US stocks, they go up, and I call it a year. That’s been the case for a while. And since I do not predict the future, I can’t tell you when that gravy train will stop. But I can manage the risk of protecting my capital when it does happen. Because when it does, it could be fierce. That’s the stock market cycle for you.

My solution? Pop 10 Stocks. It is part of the new model portfolio series that started with my risk-managed portfolio management approach, and was born through the dynamic work of my friends at PiTrade.com. You can find Pop 10 stocks as part of a collection of simple, “done-for-you” model portfolios at ROAR.PiTrade.com , our collaborative effort that aims to provide easy to use, professional-grade tools for the self-directed investors.

What is Pop 10 Stocks model portfolio?

A portfolio of the 10 mega-cap US stocks, dynamically weighted using the ROAR Score. The portfolio is formally reviewed and traded each Wednesday. While some of our model portfolios are structured to own all of the watchlist stocks all the time, Pop 10 Stocks is a bit different. It owns a stock as long as the ROAR Score is at least “neutral.” In other words, if it judged to have anything other than high risk at the current time, it is part of the portfolio. '

In addition, those stocks judged to have the lowest risk compared to their own trading history will be awarded higher position weightings. This essentially makes Pop 10 Stocks a tactical way to own up to 10 popular stocks, while aiming to sidestep their worst return periods. A T-bill ETF (BIL) is used for any uninvested capital.

How has Pop 10 Stocks model portfolio done in the past?

Above you see the back-tested performance of the model going back to late 2021. That was right before the stock/bond downturn during the first nine months of 2022. The ability to use cash as a defensive weapon when few or none of the 10 stocks were in high risk conditions can be seen, as the blue line (Pop 10 Stocks model) did not dive down with the green line (SPY). Similarly, in 2025’s “Tariff Tantrum,” the model also held its ground.

Over the full period since 11/18/2021, Pop 10 Stocks produced a return in line with SPY. However, it did so with a fraction of the volatility. Its standard deviation is just over half that of SPY, and its maximum drawdown was about 11% versus 25% for SPY.

What stocks does Pop 10 Stocks portfolio hold?

Here are the 10, along with their weightings as of Thursday’s close. The model rebalances each Wednesday, but the “live” version of the model, with ROAR Scores updated intraday each trading day, is available on the site.

As of Thursday’s close, 6 of the 10 stocks qualified to be in the portfolio, while the other 4 (MSFT, TSLA, LLY, GOOG) were judged to be higher-risk situations. As a result, cash (BIL) was 70% of the portfolio.

This is a good reminder that while our model portfolio series is available to be copy traded, and the ROAR Scores and positions are updated daily on the research site, there’s another way investors can use these models: for their own single-stock research efforts.

How successful investing happens

ROAR Scores are not “buy/sell/hold” ratings. There are plenty of those types of systems out there. Our view: the world doesn’t need another one!

By contrast, ROAR Scores are designed to remind investors how much risk they may be taking when they own a stock or ETF at a particular point in time. As I’ve written often, WHAT you own is only one aspect of investing. That exercise alone will not always produce good long-term returns.

To give yourself the best chance as an investor, you also need to consider HOW MUCH of each security to own at any point in time. THAT is what ETFYourself.com is all about. Sure, we provide plenty of ongoing insight and data. But Pop 10 Stocks and our other models remind us that the best way for investors to increase their odds of success is to think like a PORTFOLIO MANAGER, not just pick stocks and funds.

That’s what we do here. I’ll have more on our other models, including some not yet shown on the ROAR.PiTrade.com site, in the coming days. As always, we welcome your questions, comments and feedback, and invite you to tell others about what we are building here.

Important Note: I am a research provider, not a financial advisor. Pop 10 Stocks is a model portfolio based on systematic signals. For those interested in having these signals executed automatically in their own accounts, copy-trading is available through a separate company, PiTrade.com, which is a Registered Investment Advisor (RIA).