As S&P 500 concentration creates structural distortions, smart money is watching where top-heavy tech cross-holdings, shifting bond market reaction functions, and tactical high-yield opportunities collide. Here is what you need to know to navigate the noise and manage downside risk for the week ahead.

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As you see above, I’ll be speaking once again at The Money Show Orlando. I am part of The Money Show’s educational (non-sponsored) slate of presenters, which I am very grateful for. This annual event brings together a real “Who’s Who” of the investing industry, and I’m glad to have been invited back again.

My specific speaking slot is Tuesday, October 5, 2026, 5:25-6:10pm

The full 3-day event runs from Monday 10/5 through Wednesday 10/7.

Money Show Orlando is one of most vibrant, immersive, and interactive conferences I’ve attended. And aimed squarely at self-directed investors. If you decide to attend, let me know. I rarely get the opportunity to meet our audience in person.

We’ll send a separate announcement, but since we just confirmed the date and time for my presenation, we figured we’d alert you right away.

Now, onto this week’s Fresh Charts. If the markets seem like they lack direction,

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First, a quick thank you to those who opined on my quick Monday post. Behind the paywall here, we’re making a a subtle shift toward what I’d call “Rob-servations,” an ongoing series of “stuff I see, when I see it” blog posts versus the more formal, longer article-type thing.

That said, as I’m writing from my home desk for the first time in a while, today’s paid content is a bit of catch-up, so you know where my head is at right now. The market picture gets clearer by the day.

I write roughly 400 articles a year for Barchart, where I’m a regular columnist, That research is free for all to consume. If you want information and light opinion, the columns others pay me to write about my views are plentiful. We even summarize their key points here every Sunday for paid subscribers.

So for the growing number of folks who pay $200 (formerly $150) to subscribe to ETFYourself.com, we aim to deliver something extra. I think we all realize that the business world is going more toward bottom-line…everything. Perhaps that is part of what put us on this list a few days ago. And for that, we thank you!

But for those who know me best, popularity is NOT high on my bucket list. What is? Sharing what I’ve learned from 40 years on Wall Street, managing other people’s money, and now focusing on research and proactive tools that DIY investors can use themselves.

I’m trying to clone not myself, but my investment belief system around risk management, as quickly and efficiently as I can. Thus, ETFYourself.com is the insights I DON’T share with outside world.

What’s happening right now

Dana and I were on the road for about a month, but as you can tell, it didn’t stop progress here. And it got me thinking of, among other things, the way that Artificial Intelligence (AI) is now seeping into our lives. Here’s my take:

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As market concentration remains tight and underlying macro signals flash mixed indicators, tactical investors must navigate emerging thematic trends alongside critical risk management.

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Here’s this week’s report. Have some tickers you want me to analyze? Email them to info@sungardeninvestment.com.

As of August 15th (2 days from now), our monthly Substack will increase to $25/month and $200/year. Our current price is $15/month or $150/year so if you are looking for more in depth research, consider taking advantage of this deal while it lasts. Try us out for a month and cancel at any time. If you’ve been paying monthly and are enjoying what we’re putting out, take advantage of the savings now. Try us for a year and make a small investment in your portfolio building skills.

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I’ll get to the paid content in a moment, where this week I’ll provide my latest macro-market (aka big picture) comments across global markets.

FRIDAY NIGHT LIGHTS OUT

$200 a year. On a $100,000 portfolio, that’s 0.20%. For access to insight that pays for that many times over when markets are strong.

And when they eventually weaken? What we provide at ETFYourself.com is worth many times that. That’s why you should know this:

This Friday (August 14) at midnite as the clock turns to Saturday on the US East Coast, our monthly Substack will increase to $25/month and $200/year. Our current price is $15/month or $150/year so if you are looking for more in depth research, consider taking advantage of this deal while it lasts. Try us out for a month and cancel at any time. If you’ve been paying monthly and are enjoying what we’re putting out, take advantage of the savings now. Try us for a year and make a small investment in your portfolio building skills.

NEW: ROAR FLEX model portfolio

Now offered at PiTrade (RIA), Click HERE to email PiTrade's platform and type ROAR FLEX in the subject line to learn more, and talk to PiTrade directly.

ROAR 10 ETFs Update: What Does The Macro Say?

We all remember that game as kids, right? What does the cow say? Moo! What does the horse say? Neigh!

What does an overvalued stock market, pumped up by an extra decade of liquidity that made people think that they could extrapolate their recent returns forward, and never have to care about managing risk proactively? OINK! (just like what the pig says).

These are the “dog days of August.” That time of the year when parents in some states are bragging to their friends in other states about how “our kids are already back in school!”

We are less than 3 weeks away from the annual Jackson Hole meeting, which has historically been an event that prompts market reaction to whatever the Fed Chairman says in his speech. This year, we get a new guy at the podium, Kevin Warsh.

But the issues are the same: massive US debt, and a consumer economy that is very enjoyable for some, but very challenging for most. And now, an additional concern: that AI spend, and whether it will produce strong enough results over the next several years to be worth it from a return on investment (ROI) standpoint.

If not? Look out below for the stock market.

Here’s my more specific take on the status of things, as told through the lens of the 10 ETFs I think matter most now. And, which I allocate among, tactically, through my ROAR 10 ETF portfolio.

Also, for those paid subscribers who are wondering when we will return from our brief hiatus from our weekly Tuesday 4pm live show, we will be back in one week, on August 18. As a reminder, live sessions will only be offered to paid subscribers. Sign up below.

Now, what does the macro say?

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In 6 days (August 15th), our monthly Substack will increase to $25/month and $200/year. Our current price is $15/month or $150/year so if you are looking for more in depth research, consider taking advantage of this deal while it lasts. Try us out for a month and cancel at any time. If you’ve been paying monthly and are enjoying what we’re putting out, take advantage of the savings now. Try us for a year and make a small investment in your portfolio building skills.

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This is easily the nuttiest market I’ve ever seen. But my tenure in this business only goes back to 1986. Yes, I was just beyond my rookie year on Wall Street, when this happened. That’s the year 1987 through the October 19 crash. However the trouble began in late August. After a sharp rally during late July and into August. And after a year that started quickly, pulled back, traded in a volatile range for a while.

What broke it was not “fundamentals.” It was market mechanics and function. They were not just off a bit. They were downright dangerous. Just as they are now.

Bottom line: forget the narratives and the fundamentals. This is a traders’s market, periods. Asset flows and faith. That’s it.

Which is why I think EVERY serious investor needs to understand this chart below, and heed its warning…

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Boxing champ and tiger-owning supporting cast member in the movie hit The Hangover has a popular expression attributed to him. And it might just summarize what I think the current stock market is all about.

I’ll explain that in a moment. As well as why if you have been investing for less than 10 years and do not read THIS article, I’m going to guess it will cost you at least 10% of your liquid net worth over the next 10 years. Yes I mean that.

I had nothing to do with the article, I’m just supporting its conclusions. Because I see it every day, on my way to seeking out helpful investing content, as anyone else would.

Enough of the BS marketing masquerading as “advice,” delivered in most cases (74% according to this study) by people who embody the term “don’t confuse genius with a bull market.” In the words of song from Joe Jackson, 1980s pop/rock icon who Dana and I saw in concert last month (43 years after the last time I saw him!)…

”Is that the best you can do?”

Next, a quick update on what is quickly becoming not just my “go-to” approach to navigating 2026 and beyond - it is rapidly pushing most other “good ideas” I have about how to combat the machine-driven casino that is the stock market, to the sidelines. Maybe forever.

Frankly, I’ve debated over the years whether ETF Yourself was the best name we could have used to describe what we do here. And why we think it is an oasis in a sea of investment hype, ignorance, arrogance, and downright incompetence. And with stocks acting too much in tandem, I think we got the name right.

I’ll summarize the latest happenings around this simple core portfolio in 3 pictures. The first 2 are the track record, as anyone can look up at ROAR.PiTrade.com. This is a “moderate risk” portfolio, not a “beat the S&P 500 when it is up every year” portfolio. Because the latter means you’re signing up for being down 30% when that index falls 37% (as it did for the full year 2008), or squeaking out 1-2% a year the next time the S&P 500 goes 12+ years with a total return of 0% (2000-2013…look it up).

Year To Date, the automated, weekly-rebalanced ROAR 10 as we call it, is up 8.2% through Monday night’s close. I know people like to focus on that. I don’t. I focus instead on what my portfolios DO NOT do.

In the case of this one, it has been ahead of that moderate risk portfolio benchmark at nearly every point during the current year. And, it has been above a zero return all year. I know that may not seem like much if you have not been through a bear market, but there will come a time when it will be the biggest “I wish had knew” for a generation of investors. Maybe 2 generations.

The record on ROAR 10 back to the start of 2020 shows that it is a whisker short of doubling that initial $10,000 hypothetical investment. $19, 715. That’s 10.9% annualized. Without losing more than 8.2% from any peak to trough point along the way. Heck, half the semiconductor stocks lost more than that overnight a few times during July!

Again, I do not care what the S&P 500 does. If you do, and are willing to accept the risk, there are many TikTok and Instagram “experts” that will gladly sell you something. Or more to the point, get you to “like and share” so advertisers will pay them to pitch you…whether they believe in what they are saying or not.

The final picture is my current model portfolio for ROAR 10. Both versions, the automated one, and the live one I update via my own account though PiTrade.com. We’ll soon be merging those 2 into the automated model.

Because as we informed our “inner circle” subscribers earlier today, we are are going to offer a more comprehensive version of this portfolio very soon, one that will be the closest thing to “Rob’s personal portfolio” (minus the bond ladder) as I’ve had since I last managed client accounts as an advisor (2020).

In 11 days (August 15th), our monthly Substack will increase to $25/month and $200/year. Our current price is $15/month or $150/year so if you are looking for more in depth research, consider taking advantage of this deal while it lasts. Try us out for a month and cancel at any time. If you’ve been paying monthly and are enjoying what we’re putting out, take advantage of the savings now. Try us for a year and make a small investment in your portfolio building skills.

Here’s that automated and live model allocation as of Monday night:

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In 13 days (August 15th), our monthly Substack will increase to $25/month and $200/year. Our current price is $15/month or $150/year so if you are looking for more in depth research, consider taking advantage of this deal while it lasts. Try us out for a month and cancel at any time. If you’ve been paying monthly and are enjoying what we’re putting out, take advantage of the savings now. Try us for a year and make a small investment in your portfolio building skills.

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In 2026, it can’t be avoided…unless you know how to spot it.

Here’s what I’m talking about. You see, while I review hundreds of stock and ETF charts to identify the most interesting setups in both directions, that comes out each Thursday via Fresh Charts. But the week’s effort is continuous. And Tuesdays can often be a helpful guidepost.

Such as today, when I poured through my go-to list of 75 ETFs that I think still matter.

*In 18 days (August 15th), our monthly Substack will increase to $25/month and $200/year. Our current price is $15/month or $150/year so if you are looking for more in depth research, consider taking advantage of this deal while it lasts. Try us out for a month and cancel at any time. If you’ve been paying monthly and are enjoying what we’re putting out, take advantage of the savings now. Try us for a year and make a small investment in your portfolio building skills.

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As of August 15th, our monthly Substack will increase to $25/month and $200/year. Our current price is $15/month or $150/year so if you are looking for more in depth research, consider taking advantage of this deal while it lasts. Try us out for a month and cancel at any time. If you’ve been paying monthly and are enjoying what we’re putting out, take advantage of the savings now. Try us for a year and make a small investment in your portfolio building skills.

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My regular readers know I’m a big sports fan. Like many of us are. I grew up on baseball, became a bit of a savant around America’s Pastime, and over the years added NFL football and NHL hockey to my faves. But for reasons I still can’t quite decide…and it is not the big-time gambling, since I’m a cheapskate wagering guy…I’m really into horse racing.

So much so that Dana and I decided to spend some time this summer in a place we are fairly familiar with from a long time ago. We attended separate colleges at roughly the same time, both in Upstate NY (Albany for me, Union for her). So this is both nostalgic and, as a racing fan, I must say…like heaven on earth. And that’s besides the major upgrade in weather versus our South Florida HQ!

So, with Saratoga racing season (where they’ve been doing this since 1863!) in high gear up here, and our friends on the west coast having just started their annual “boutique racing meet” at the iconic Del Mar meet in San Diego, here’s a horse racing-inspired look at how I “handicap” the current race to profit from the global markets.

Below, you will see 7 ETFs, the “horses” in this race for the money (your money and mine). I’ve set odds for each to be the best performer in this “horse race” between now the end of September (close of Q3). That’s a few weeks after Saratoga and Del Mar close their annual seasons.

And, investing as in racing, winning is the big payoff. But finishing, second third, and even fourth and fifth in some situations can bring you a positive return on your investment, I’m not focused entirely on picking THE winner. Because as is the mantra around here, first we try to avoid the worst-case finishers, then make as much as we can on the rest.

Here’s the field for the 1st ETFYourself.com summer derby!

*As a reminder, starting August 15th, our monthly Substack will increase to $25/month and $200/year. Our current price is $15/month or $150/year so if you are looking for more in depth research, consider taking advantage of this deal while it lasts. Try us out for a month and cancel at any time. If you’ve been paying monthly and are enjoying what we’re putting out, take advantage of the savings now. Try us for a year and make a small investment in your portfolio building skills.

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As of August 15th, our monthly Substack will increase to $25/month and $200/year. Our current price is $15/month or $150/year so if you are looking for more in depth research, consider taking advantage of this deal while it lasts. Try us out for a month and cancel at any time. If you’ve been paying monthly and are enjoying what we’re putting out, take advantage of the savings now. Try us for a year and make a small investment in your portfolio building skills.

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My professional investing career turned 40 years old this year. I’ve been in some investment-related capacity, working for pay, since August of 1986. During that time, I’d say I’ve had maybe 6 or 7 “moments of clarity” that stood out. So one about every 6 years.

I just had one of them. And I can’t stop thinking about it. So I’m writing to you about it today.

There was the moment in my rookie year when I found out with everyone else that the stock market could fall 22% in a single day. 10/19/1987. I remember it like it was yesterday. Even what I had for lunch that day. Just don’t ask me to remember what color suit I was wearing (even money’s on blue).

Then there was the late 1990s, when I taped together a presentation to show to clients (yes, scotch tape), in order to hide some of the answers, gameshow-style. I was coaching them on what was possible if the stock market cratered as it had in the 1970s, and what type of impact that could have on their portfolios. I said it was the late 1990s. It was actually late 1999. In March of 2000, the stock market topped, and for the next 13 years, its return was about…0%.

Later on, there was my “discovering” and starting to use inverse mutual funds, the ancestor of the inverse or “bear” ETFs I now use proactively to hedge and profit from declines in the broad market, sectors, and even single stocks. That was around 1998.

It was followed by my study of dividend investing with my then-college-aged son, which later resulted in the creation of YARP (Yield At a Reasonable Price), my biggest "intellectual property” achievement until last year, when we formalized the ROAR (Return Opportunity And Risk) Score, to help short-cut stock and ETF charting for investors, and help them build their own portfolios.

I just had another “one of those” moments. Here’s what happened, and how I’m going to put it into “overdrive” to help our subscribers*. Stick around to the end as I reveal the 5 charts I’m watching.

*Starting August 15th, our monthly Substack will increase to $25/month and $200/year. Our current price is $15/month or $150/year so if you are looking for more in depth research, consider taking advantage of this deal while it lasts. Try us out for a month and cancel at any time. If you’ve been paying monthly and are enjoying what we’re putting out, take advantage of the savings now. Try us for a year and make a small investment in your portfolio building skills. Last free live session is today at 4 PM EST. Sign up HERE.

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As of August 15th, our monthly Substack will increase to $25/month and $200/year. Our current price is $15/month or $150/year so if you are looking for more in depth research, consider taking advantage of this deal while it lasts. Try us out for a month and cancel at any time. If you’ve been paying monthly and are enjoying what we’re putting out, take advantage of the savings now. Try us for a year and make a small investment in your portfolio building skills.

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