I buy the biggest US stocks, they go up, and I call it a year. That’s been the case for a while. And since I do not predict the future, I can’t tell you when that gravy train will stop. But I can manage the risk of protecting my capital when it does happen. Because when it does, it could be fierce. That’s the stock market cycle for you.

My solution? Pop 10 Stocks. It is part of the new model portfolio series that started with my risk-managed portfolio management approach, and was born through the dynamic work of my friends at PiTrade.com. You can find Pop 10 stocks as part of a collection of simple, “done-for-you” model portfolios at ROAR.PiTrade.com , our collaborative effort that aims to provide easy to use, professional-grade tools for the self-directed investors.

What is Pop 10 Stocks model portfolio?

A portfolio of the 10 mega-cap US stocks, dynamically weighted using the ROAR Score. The portfolio is formally reviewed and traded each Wednesday. While some of our model portfolios are structured to own all of the watchlist stocks all the time, Pop 10 Stocks is a bit different. It owns a stock as long as the ROAR Score is at least “neutral.” In other words, if it judged to have anything other than high risk at the current time, it is part of the portfolio. '

In addition, those stocks judged to have the lowest risk compared to their own trading history will be awarded higher position weightings. This essentially makes Pop 10 Stocks a tactical way to own up to 10 popular stocks, while aiming to sidestep their worst return periods. A T-bill ETF (BIL) is used for any uninvested capital.

How has Pop 10 Stocks model portfolio done in the past?

Above you see the back-tested performance of the model going back to late 2021. That was right before the stock/bond downturn during the first nine months of 2022. The ability to use cash as a defensive weapon when few or none of the 10 stocks were in high risk conditions can be seen, as the blue line (Pop 10 Stocks model) did not dive down with the green line (SPY). Similarly, in 2025’s “Tariff Tantrum,” the model also held its ground.

Over the full period since 11/18/2021, Pop 10 Stocks produced a return in line with SPY. However, it did so with a fraction of the volatility. Its standard deviation is just over half that of SPY, and its maximum drawdown was about 11% versus 25% for SPY.

What stocks does Pop 10 Stocks portfolio hold?

Here are the 10, along with their weightings as of Thursday’s close. The model rebalances each Wednesday, but the “live” version of the model, with ROAR Scores updated intraday each trading day, is available on the site.

As of Thursday’s close, 6 of the 10 stocks qualified to be in the portfolio, while the other 4 (MSFT, TSLA, LLY, GOOG) were judged to be higher-risk situations. As a result, cash (BIL) was 70% of the portfolio.

This is a good reminder that while our model portfolio series is available to be copy traded, and the ROAR Scores and positions are updated daily on the research site, there’s another way investors can use these models: for their own single-stock research efforts.

How successful investing happens

ROAR Scores are not “buy/sell/hold” ratings. There are plenty of those types of systems out there. Our view: the world doesn’t need another one!

By contrast, ROAR Scores are designed to remind investors how much risk they may be taking when they own a stock or ETF at a particular point in time. As I’ve written often, WHAT you own is only one aspect of investing. That exercise alone will not always produce good long-term returns.

To give yourself the best chance as an investor, you also need to consider HOW MUCH of each security to own at any point in time. THAT is what ETFYourself.com is all about. Sure, we provide plenty of ongoing insight and data. But Pop 10 Stocks and our other models remind us that the best way for investors to increase their odds of success is to think like a PORTFOLIO MANAGER, not just pick stocks and funds.

That’s what we do here. I’ll have more on our other models, including some not yet shown on the ROAR.PiTrade.com site, in the coming days. As always, we welcome your questions, comments and feedback, and invite you to tell others about what we are building here.

Important Note: I am a research provider, not a financial advisor. Pop 10 Stocks is a model portfolio based on systematic signals. For those interested in having these signals executed automatically in their own accounts, copy-trading is available through a separate company, PiTrade.com, which is a Registered Investment Advisor (RIA).

Getting older has its downsides, but the perspective of experience isn’t one of them. As ETFYourself.com grows, I feel compelled to share that perspective because investing in 2026 has become a different beast entirely.

Today, stocks are like fish in a tidal wave. Company fundamentals matter less than ever; instead, prices gyrate based on the “Super Bowl” of the week—be it Fed decisions, NVDA earnings, or geopolitical rumors. With 24/7 media and massive capital concentration in S&P 500 index funds, there’s less room for the traditional stock picker. Most assets simply move in lockstep.

Here’s the latest version of “how do I know this”:

I saw this clearly in my own trading account this morning.

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“Look both ways before you cross the street.” We are told that as kids. That expression is also vital in the investing world. Yet so few actually do it.

We are all taught to buy securities. And perhaps some are taught a form of sell discipline. But are they taught how to make money, or at least avoid steep, potentially life-altering declines in portfolio value? NO. At least, not enough for my satisfaction.

That’s why ETFYourself.com exists. Because it is NOT a one-way street.

At least not around here it isn’t. My goal as an investor, really since I started managing other people’s money in 1993, has been, above all else, allow them to fight for another day. That is, to take major risk of loss off the table, by any means necessary. The older I get, the more that makes sense to me as an investor myself. And the more I see markets toy with our hard-earned capital as they regularly do, the more I’m glad I took that path.

There’s just way too much careless, flippant chatter on Wall Street. “Time in the market, buy and hold, bear markets are healthy.” It sounds like a Marlboro cigarette ad from the 1950s! So, let’s skip that trip to “flavor country” and focus on my favorite flavor of investing: the all-weather kind.

Why learn to play offense AND defense at the same time?

Because your 10-years-older self will thank you. And your next generation too. That’s why.

Hey, I get it. The stock market usually goes up. But that’s like saying people my age (61) usually live until age 80. Here’s the S&P 500, 10-year rolling returns, as of each 10-year period from 2000 through now. I drew a fat yellow line across the 8% annualized return. What do you see?

I see that as pretty close to a MEDIAN. What’s that mean? That returns well south of 8% a year are not only to be expected over time, they are quite frequent. And since they tend to occur in cycles, with the tide being as high as the far right side of that chat shows, and having been high for the past 7 years, why not learn to defend, not just attack? As it turns out, sometimes the best defense can be a good offense.

And, if there’s one time you do not want to be “average” as an investor, it is during a period where the financial markets do not serve as a wind at our back. While I think the wind is shifting against investors, it is not about guessing. It is about a simple question: do you want to invest in a way that is prepared for ANYTHING, or just for when the weather is beautiful? If you read my work regularly, you’re likely in the latter camp.

Yet there’s so little education available about this topic, this risk management I speak of constantly, and show to subscribers multiple times a week here. And what’s worse, a lot of what passes for “defense” is put forth more for immediate gratification, rather than an actual, strategic approach to managing risk. Because while this or that market segment can be a light of hope for a little while, that often leads to a false sense of security.

I wanted to make this point to you so badly, I was willing to resort to drawing happy and sad faces on a serious chart. When I hear the typical cheerleading such as “just own consumer staples and utilities, and you’ll be fine,” my mind goes RIGHT BACK to the 2000-2003 period. The dot-com bubble was bursting, and those 2 sectors did indeed serve as an oasis. That’s the green happy face period above.

But then, Mr. Red Face took over. By the time that 3-year plunge was over, no sectors were green. Oh, they outperformed SPY over that time. By losing less. Last I checked, I can’t feed my family on “relative returns to the market.”

Managing risk is about more than a transaction. It is about making it a full-fledged member of the team that is my portfolio.

Now, let’s look at the current, rapidly-changing market landscape as we do every Tuesday here, and I’ll show you and tell you what I’m seeing right now. Without the use of happy and sad faces. Which should make everyone happy.

Let’s start with this, what I think is the silent market driver most are not considering.

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We see why. It contains a growing set of “Pre-Built” Portfolios you can simply click on, track and either use as a research reference, implement yourself or have copy traded at PiTrade.com. You can also build your own portfolios there.

The ROAR 10 ETF model is what I’d consider our “flagship” model, since it is essentially the 2026 version of what I did for decades as a fund manager and investment advisor. And, while many of the model portfolios we offer are what I’d call “simply effective” with 2-3 ETFs in them, a few are more complex. ROAR 10 ETF is one, and I’ve just launched another one: Dow 30.

Why Dow 30 model portfolio, and how does it work?

You can read about it on the site, but here’s the skinny:

• It owns all 30 Dow stocks at all times.

• It owns those stocks in varying allocations, based on the individual and combined ROAR Score of the Dow 30 stocks at any point in time.

• Cash is its only hedge (no inverse ETFs), and it is benchmarked to the DIA ETF.

• Thus, Dow 30 is a GROWTH portfolio, a higher risk model than ROAR 10 ETF.

Here’s its back-tested performance back to 1/1/2020.

As you can see, the Dow 30 model, using ROAR Scores to determine the allocation across the 30 stocks, outperformed DIA by more than 4% annually, with about 1/10 less risk (measured by Max Drawdown). That amounted to 45% higher returns over this period. The Sharpe Ratio (Return per unit of risk) is nearly double that of DIA.

In each calendar year since 2020, Dow 30 has either outperformed DIA, or has earned a return of at least 11.8%.

Our model portfolios are free to try for now. Soon we’ll be putting them behind a paywall, as our “beta test” phase for investors to try it out will end soon. We’ll have an announcement on the specifics shortly.

Now, to that other bit of news. This is something I’m aiming to do more of going forward for our paid subscribers: provide insight into what I do with my trading accounts.

ETFs, stocks and bonds are the main asset types I use in my own “core” portfolio. And while we all have different objectives, I hope that by writing about other aspects of my own investing, I can help subscribers to expand their own “vision” of what is possible as a DIY investor.

Case in point: I run a little $1,000 “spec” account, and use options to try to “take big shots with small amounts of money.” Earlier today, I did this:

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⚠️ Macro Warnings & Market Reality Checks

Is the “Big Short 2.0” around the corner? These articles look at the red flags waving in the current climate.

• S&P 500: 10 Biggest Stocks Look So Bad, I Can’t Be Bullish – Why the concentration at the top is a major warning sign.

• Financial Stocks Are Waving a Red Flag Reminiscent of 2008 – Analyzing the “Big Short 2.0” potential brewing in the banking sector.

• The Strait of Hormuz Crisis – Three essential charts to track as geopolitical tensions impact your portfolio.

• What Happens Next After the QQQ’s 3% Single-Day Move? – A historical look at what extreme volatility in tech really means for the coming weeks.

💡 High-Conviction “Buy” Ideas

Not everything is bearish. Here are the specific spots where the “smart money” is looking to find value right now.

• These 3 Big Stocks Could Beat the Bears – Defensive plays for an offensive market.

• These 3 ETFs Might Be Buy-the-Dip Candidates – Why there’s “more to the story” than just the price drop.

• Financial Stock ETFs Ready to Rally? – Navigating the lurking macro issues to find the rally potential.

🛠️ The Tactical Toolkit: Strategy & Income

How to trade the current volatility and simplify your game plan for 2026.

• A ‘Golden’ Way to Trade Volatility – Low risk, high reward strategies for trading gold.

• Ignore the Siren Song of AI for a 4% Yield for Life – A strategy that favors guaranteed income over tech hype.

• 1 Low-Risk Way to ‘Just Do It’ with Nike Options – A surgical approach to trading a retail giant.

• The Year of Simple Investing Gameplan – Why 2026 is the year to cut the noise and get back to basics.

• 4 Questions to Ask Before Buying Any ETF – Your essential checklist for due diligence.

🚀 Level Up Your Strategy

Reading is the first step; execution is the second. Join our Premium Members this Tuesday to discuss these charts live with Rob Isbitts.

• Track Risk: Check your ROAR score on Pitrade.com.

• Get the Charts: Start a 30-Day Free Trial of BarChart Premier.

• Deep Research: Get $30 off Seeking Alpha Premium.

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This is the first in a series of posts I’m calling “Build-A-Portfolio Workshop.” Why? It worked for teddy bears, that’s why. It also brings back great memories of when our kids were little.

Memories aside, building a portfolio is a very serious subject. However, 6 years into my post-investment advisor, semi-retired life, I am convinced that the #1 skill that DIY investors need, but do not have, is building a portfolio. And it is 100% not their fault.

The investment industry has long prioritized product sales and “feel good” aspects of investing. I’ve spent the past half-decade learning all about how the “other half lives,” since my client base back then was a few dozen families with 7-figure portfolios, most of whom had been with us for decades. They paid me to be their portfolio construction and management expert.

Fast forward to 2026, and I’ve come to realize that there’s a huge, uncomfortable dichotomy, a major disconnect between the people who want to learn to be their own portfolio manager, and those who cater to them.

Each of us ultimately has to make our own choices about what to do with our investable assets. But when we seek guidance, personalized or otherwise, it helps if we get the whole picture. Unfortunately, I think that’s not been happening enough. Which is why our site and service exists.

Just below, I present a table which shows just how well “simple” investing has been doing, versus a lot of over-hyped, fancy-sounding strategies.

What are DIY investors getting?

• Stock tips (here today, forgotten tomorrow, so there’s not much accountability)

• Trading advice that is either too complex or too much like gambling

• Cookie-cutter “solutions which do not manage risk proactively, but cost a lot

• Hype, hype, hype, excitement, hype, noise and innuendo

What are DIY investors NOT getting?

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That’s the chart. Now the explanation and my forward-looking view.

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Braylon Mullins might be the most divisive figure in the United States right now. And he’s not even a politician!

He’s the 6-foot-6 freshman from the University of Connecticut, whose 3-point shot shocked the sports world last Sunday during the NCAA March Madness tournament. He sent UConn to the Final Four, and sent Duke fans, along with many frustrated bracket-holders, to the showers.

I have nothing at stake in that dogfight. My bracket was busted when Michigan State lost. But the more I thought about what could be one of most memorable moments in college basketball history, it did what sports often does: it made me analogize to investing.

So, at a time when markets are reeling, “buy the dip” chatter is everywhere, “sell the rip” is what’s working, and the value of our accumulated wealth seems to be way too dependent on social posts and suppositions, I’m taking a time out.

I’m doing so to point out a few of my “go-to” investing tenets that are playing out right in front of our eyes. Because in a quarter (Q1 2026) where the main strategy I make available and discuss with subscribers here (ROAR 10 ETF) is battling today to get to a 3% gain for the quarter while the S&P 500 tries to rally to end the period around -7%, there are important observations to make.

This is NOT about how I beat the market by 10% in a quarter. It is one quarter. I can practically assure you that if SPY rallies 10% the next quarter or even month, ROAR 10 ETF will not match that.

However, it IS about how any investor, either following my lead or on their own, can learn to be competitive in down markets. And ultimately, about what every investor really wants for themself.

It has ZERO to do with day trading or what stocks you own. It has EVERYTHING to do with creating and carefully executing an investment process built to “play offense and defense at the same time.” It means investing methodically, not guessing and speculating.

In that instant classic UConn-Duke NCAA basketball game, the attention has been focused primarily on Mullins’ shot, which came with 0.3 sections left on the clock. However, there’s far less written about Silas Demary Jr. He’s the UConn player that tipped the Duke pass in the final second, which allowed UConn to get possession of the ball. No ball, no heroic, game-winning shot.

Defense wins championships. Or in this case, gets you to the Final Four.

Investing in a way that prioritizes defense, instead of just “how much can I make when the market goes up,” isn’t as fun and exciting as “what I’m buying here” and “my picks for the Iran War relief rally.” Fortunately, there is no shortage of outlets for those who see stock and other markets as something other than what they are to me: simply a tool to get what we want out of life, by having enough money to do it comfortably. Immediate thrill or eventual comfort. That’s the caveman-like decision everyone makes.

By the way, how many year-end stock picks are working out so far? A quick scan of the 20 biggest S&P 500 stocks shows that 3/4 of them are down. My point: stock picks are mostly meaningless in a market that now runs on passive flows in and out of index funds, algorithmic trading, and dare I say, a level of insider trading the likes of which I have not seen in 40 years of doing this.

How to Bend, But Not Break

In that “eventual comfort” camp, we emphasize things like “low standard deviation.” Translated to English, that means your portfolio’s value fluctuates in a tighter range over time. I’ll use ROAR 10 ETF’s actual path during the month of March, versus the SPY ETF, to make that point as clear as I can. About what my investing style is, and isn’t.

Here, right from the ROAR.PiTrade.com site, is the first quarter. ROAR 10 ETF in blue, and its “best-fit” benchmark, ETF ticker AOM, which is 40% stocks/60% bonds. Again, SPY was down 7% through yesterday. QQQ was off closer to 10%. The AGG bond index ETF was off slightly.

The month of March is where things went from bad to worse, thus earning the moniker “March Badness” from me. ROAR 10 ETF hung in there.

Those are the “headlines” and as I always tell you, there’s a lot underneath. So to finish this review of my risk-managed investing process, through the eyes of the worst market quarter in years, here are a few bullet points to round out what I call the "bend, don’t break” philosophy through three key behaviors:

1. Resilience on “Red” Days: There were 6 days during the month where the S&P 500 dropped by more than 1%. In every single one of those instances, ROAR 10 ETF significantly outperformed the market. On 4 of those 6 high-volatility days, ROAR 10 actually posted positive returns while the market was falling.

2. Mitigating the “Deepest Cuts”: While SPY investors watched their cumulative monthly return sink to a low of 7.8% by March 30th, the ROAR 10 ETF never saw its cumulative performance dip below 0.7%. This limited “bend” prevented the emotional panic that often leads investors to sell at the bottom.

3. Superior Risk-Adjusted Stability: The volatility of the ROAR 10 ETF was roughly 4 times lower than that of the S&P 500. This smoothed the investment journey, allowing for a “calm and confident” perspective.

Next up? Who knows. But the process is prepared for it.

This has everything to do with proactive construction of the portfolio, and a time-tested allocation methodology. I use my creation, the ROAR Score, and a central part of our paid subscription services is my teaching people how to use it. My own “best practices” if you will.

But I do not have a monopoly on solid investment process. So my work is here to be used however any individual investor chooses, to, as they chart their own course. Literally.

Now, I’ll take a look at ETFs, stocks and the broader market climate. Not to predict the future, which is fun but ultimately pointless. To assess market risk and invest in a way that balances that with the return potential that always exists.

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Did you know that just 5 stocks (NVDA, AAPL, MSFT, GOOG/GOOGL, AMZN) account for 28% of the entire S&P 500 index? Add in the next 20 by company size (“market capitalization”) and you are at 50% of the entire index.

If that sounds normal to you, in a way that won’t matter much, consider this: investors typically know what the S&P 500 index is. It is the most popular gauge of “the stock market.” However, 475 of those 500 stocks make up half the index. Translation: individually, they really don’t count for much, as far as what happens to SPY, VOO, IVV and many other ETFs which exist to track the S&P 500, and allow us to own it in a single trade.

But if we want to know where that index is going, we can get a good proxy by simply looking at the top 10 by weight, which make up about 3/8 of the entire 500-stock index.

That’s what I did this morning, as I watch the market give up another Monday opening burst higher. And, as I continue to watch the risk-managed portfolios I run continue to edge a bit higher much of that time.

These top 10 speak for the market to a large extent. I analyzed their ROAR Scores going all the way back to the start of 2020. Here’s what I found, and why I’m taking it VERY seriously.

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📈 Weekly Investing Digest: March 22 – March 28, 2026

It was a week of “Straits and Rates.” From the geopolitical tension in the Middle East to the hidden risks in AI and Big Tech, we’ve dissected the moves that matter most to your portfolio.

🌍 Macro & Geopolitics: The “Strait” Reality

• Amid Hormuz Closure, Oil Prices Are the Only Macro Force That Matters – Why the energy market is the tail wagging the global dog right now.

• Commodity ETF Traders Have Been Dealt a ‘Strait Flush’ – How to navigate the sudden volatility in resource ETFs.

• Why You Should Care About the Billions Flowing Into ETFs – Linking the liquidity of the Strait of Hormuz to the liquidity of the ETF market.

🛡️ Market Risks: AI, Bonds, & Overcrowding

• Warning: Investing in Tech Stocks May Just Be 1 Big, Overcrowded Trade – Are you diversified, or just following the herd?

• A Collapse Brewing in AI Stocks: What Comes Next Could Get Ugly – Why the distraction of war might be masking a fundamental tech correction.

• The Bond Market Is Flashing Warning Signs – Don’t let the “TACO” headlines distract you from the fixed-income reality.

• S&P 500 Investors Are Seeking Alpha, But Just Getting Beta – A reality check on index performance.

🎯 Tactical Plays & Stock Spotlights

• This Nvidia Collar Might Just Taste Like Lemonade – How to protect gains in a volatile semiconductor environment.

• After a 19% Move Upward, Does ARM Stock Have More Room to Run? – A deep dive into the momentum of the year’s hottest chip stock.

• Netflix: I’m Not Convinced the Move Will Be Up – Why the technicals are telling a different story than the hype.

• Easy Come, Easy Gold: Why the Metal Is Tanking – Deciphering the disconnect between inflation fears and gold prices.

• Low-Risk, High-Reward Silver Options Trade – How to profit from the whipsaw in precious metals.

• This Simple 2-ETF Portfolio Keeps Beating the Market – Proof that sometimes, less is more.

📊 Professional Toolkit (Real-Time Signals)

The articles above provide the “what” and the “why.” If you want the “when” and the “how much,” use these tools:

• Track the Risk: See exactly how I am weighting risk vs. reward with the ROAR score on Pitrade.com.

• See My Charts: Grab a 30-Day Free Trial of BarChart Premier to see the technical setups I use.

• Upgrade Your Data: Take $30 off a Seeking Alpha Premium subscription to access the same institutional-grade research I reference in my weekly index.

• Next Update: Watch your inbox this Tuesday for The Weekly ROAR, breaking down post-weekend technical signals.

🚀 Take the Next Step: Upgrade to Premium

Reading the digest is the first step. Applying it live is how you master the market.

Our Premium Members don’t just read these 13 articles—they discuss them with Rob Isbitts every Tuesday. If you want to see the charts behind the “Nvidia Collar” or the “Hormuz Crisis” in real-time, it’s time to level up.

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First, a quick update on how the ROAR 10 ETF model portfolio is doing amid this slow bleed of a market drop. Here’s a snapshot directly from PiTrade.com which is what you see if you sign up for that app and click on this portfolio for copy trading, or just to take a look. And, you can see all of my ROAR research at ROAR.PiTrade.com

That portfolio is benchmarked to iShares “Moderate Risk” portfolio ETF (AOM). Of note, the conservative index (AOK) is off 1.6% so far this year, while the S&P 500 (SPY) is down 6%. Risk management comes in many forms. My goal has always been to first defend a down market cycle, then try to “exploit it” for gains. It takes a lot more than buy-and-hold or buying every dip “just because.” But after a few decades of operating that way, I have no plans to change my core philosophy.

For more on my long-time approach to managing risk while pursuing long-term returns, check out this article I published here late last year.

Now, that that busy chart I started this post with, and why I think it is a critical picture for investors right now. And probably for a while.

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The words won’t mean much to you unless you truly understand them. But I’ll explain them below, in my terms. Drawing in fact from something I wrote in an investing book, which came out way back in 2006.

That book was called “Wall Street’s Bull And How To Bear It.” It is out of print. Instead, you have the content of ETFYourself.com, where I take the investing lessons learned over 40 years in the business, and try to boil them down to bite-sized nuggets of insight.

Among many foundational topic discussed in that book (which had a cover that was, let’s just say, intriguing) was the importance for investors to understand 3 words which are to me, literally the ABCs of modern investing. And I dare say, 2026’s markets are bringing them front and center. Let’s explore, then look at the current risk and return setup across global markets.

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They call it TACO. TACO = Trump Always Chickens Out. No one’s ever seen anything like it. Again on Monday, it hit the markets “very strongly.” And in about 2 weeks, it should all be resolved. Maybe.

And it is playing right into the hands of those of us who play defense alongside the obligatory offense. Here’s what’s on my mind after yet another “Manic Monday.” As a big fan of the 1980s band “The Bangles,” I’ll go on record as saying, I like their hit song better than this new weekly market game, where POTUS speaks, and the algorithmic trading systems that now run the stock market react.

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Weekly Investing Digest | March 15 – March 21, 2026

Market volatility is back, and "Stag-Nation" is the word of the week. From the "rotting" interior of the S&P 500 to hidden opportunities in the bond market, here is your comprehensive guide to navigating the current landscape.

🚨 Market Alerts & Risk Signals

• 1 Ultra-High Risk Signal Just Triggered for the Stock Market: A critical warning for equity holders—learn how to position yourself to profit from the downside.

• S&P 500: Down Markets Are Different: A survival guide for the current correction before things get worse.

• The S&P 500 Is Rotting from the Inside Out: Why the headline index numbers are lying to you and how to trade the internal decay.

💡 Strategy & Mindset

• My Top 10 Ways to Adopt a Risk Management Mindset: Practical steps to prioritize capital preservation while it still matters.

• Most Stocks Aren’t Worth the Risk: Simplify your life with a 2-ETF portfolio designed to outperform the noise.

• The Market About Nothing: Why stocks are stuck in a “Seinfeld-style” loop and the best way to play the sideways grind.

🔍 Sector Spotlights

• Trading the SaaS Apocalypse: Cloud computing is a tale of two cities—identify which stocks are bottoming and which are still falling.

• XHB: Why I Continue To Condemn Homebuilding Stocks: My ongoing bear case for the housing industry despite recent headlines.

• Is the Thrill Gone in QQQ?: Evaluating the tech giants and where investors should shift their focus now.

🦅 Bonds & Macro

• The Strait of Hormuz Is Just a Distraction: Don’t let geopolitical noise pull your eyes off the real story: what the yield curve is telling us about bonds.

📊 Professional Toolkit (Real-Time Signals)

The articles above provide the “what” and the “why.” If you want the “when” and the “how much,” use these tools:

• Track the Risk: See exactly how I am weighting risk vs. reward with the ROAR score on Pitrade.com.

• See My Charts: Grab a 30-Day Free Trial of BarChart Premier to see the technical setups I use.

• Upgrade Your Data: Take $30 off a Seeking Alpha Premium subscription to access the same institutional-grade research I reference in my weekly index.

• Next Update: Watch your inbox this Tuesday for The Weekly ROAR, breaking down post-weekend technical signals.

But I’m posting today because I’m going to assume that this weekend is a bit more anxious for many investors than usual. And since my resume includes steering carefully through every bear market since the 1987 crash, at times like this, weekends are a time to really hone on what is happening.

Our regular readers likely realize that while this recent market action, which has the S&P 500 down 6.5% since January 27, was no surprise to me, and that I was positioned for it, that’s not the real takeaway. My whole style of investing is built to ALWAYS be ready for sudden changes of fortune in markets.

That’s what drives the selection and rotation among the positions in the ROAR 10 ETF portfolio, the one I talk about here often. From the ROAR.PiTrade.com site, here is how the last 3 months have shaken out versus ticker AOM, a 40% stock/60% bond portfolio, the strategy’s primary benchmark.

Do I sacrifice upside sometimes? Sure. Do I do so willingly, since keeping what I have is paramount? You betcha!

That means looking at markets for what they are: tools to get what we want out of life. That’s it. Forget the commercials, the flag-waiving to “be a long term investor” and all that. To me it is as simple as this: for every $100 I have now, there is no way I’m going to let this inanimate object…the financial markets…take more than $5 away. That’s the mentality I invest with, always. And that’s why our paid service is not for everyone. But for those in sync with the idea of “playing offense and defense at the same time,” we hope it is an oasis at times like this.

Here’s what I see going into next week:

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Now that I’ve written a bunch of these “almost daily ROAR” posts to our wider audience, I’m going to tilt things a bit. How?

Shorter posts (after today) simply focused on what I see, and why. And behind the paywall.

Of course, the ROAR Score system we built at ROAR.PiTrade.com, which is free to try for now, is the research “lab” from which all of these posts originate.

We are moving most of my daily posts behind the paywall for a simple reason. We think it is valuable. Because it is based on 40+ years of experience. And because in a market where risk management is suddenly queen, king, princess and prince, our approach is more valuable than ever. So our paid subscribers should get as much exclusivity as possible.

The S&P 500 (SPY) ROAR Score has been as good a guide the past 12 months as it can be. There to warn of a pending slide at this time last year (far left side of chart), cautious through the first “fakeout” bounce, then a rare red to green (high risk to low risk) signal in a week (charts like this one below show ROAR Score risk levels on a weekly basis, not daily, to cut some of the daily “noise” in the stats).

Then, a prolonged period in the yellow (neutral risk) zone, before finally indicating elevated risk (red - far right side) just as things were about to go from bad to worse.

That’s past tense. Now, let’s move on to the current market. Because while many strategists spend times like this trying to play their own personal game of “Twister” to make the case that all will be well…I don’t assume any of that. Nor do I guess.

I rely on a decades-long approach to investing that simply says, “any ETF or stock can go up at any time…so it is measuring risk of major loss at ALL stages of the cycle that, in my experience, creates a more comfortable path to long-term investing success.

I’ve written enough general posts about that system so that along with the Quick Start guide on that analysis site, as well as the START tab here at ETF yourself.com, we hope we have put plenty of intelligence in your hands. Now that we have, let us know what you think, and how we can make both of these research services better!

Now to today’s topic. The 2 ETFs I am watching that could be the unsung heroes of this market. And I doubt you have heard of them, unless you’re an ETF wonk like me.

The first is Direxion Daily 20-Year Treasury Bear 3X (TMV). You are familiar with TBF since it is one of 10 ETFs my ROAR 10 portfolio. TBF uses a modest amount of leverage to short the bond market. That is, if rates go up, TBF does too. That’s helpful since that’s also when long-term bond prices go down. So it’s a useful hedge if you own bonds (like I do, where my bond ladder is my biggest account). Or it can simply be a way to try to profit from higher rates.

TMV has $160mm in assets, and it has been around since 2009. But that pales in comparison to TLT, which owns 20-30 year Treasury bonds. That ETF has more than $45 billion in assets! And it has not made money in a while, as rates have come up off the floor since 2022. As they say, there’s no accounting for taste!

TMV is not for everyone for sure. It is 3x leveraged. So if rates continue to rise it will continue to spike higher. Of course, the reverse is true as well. A sudden flight to quality rally in bonds will sink this fast. That’s why to me, these leveraged ETFs are very useful tools, but ONLY when used responsibly.

What does that mean? With the rest of the portfolio’s positioning considered. Just speculating on these is fun and games with very small amounts of capital. But to me, they are alternatives to owning put options on TLT. Be careful out there.

The other one is US Treasury 2 Year Note ETF (UTWO). I present this one in large part because I’m closely monitoring 2-year Treasury rates. Not so much to own this ETF, but because I’m starting to see a real possibility that for those who do not use inverse or volatility ETFs or put options in their portfolio, this might end up being a top performer over the next 24 months. I’ve seen it many times before.

And here is the ROAR analysis for TMV.

If you own the ETF, you do not own the bonds themselves. So you will have some very modest price fluctuation that does not resolve at maturity. Because there is no maturity date.

The reason I’m carefully tracking 2-year yields as they approach 4% is not only because, as in 2022, if stocks and bonds fall together, 4% return looks pretty darn nice. But also because as a fan of zero-coupon Treasuries, which are purchased at a discount and mature at par ($100).

The Math

A 4% return over 2 year is about 8.2% compounded. That means for $92 invested today, I can get $100 returned to me in 2 years, period. And while that is not the best return I’ll ever get, it serves as a BASE from which I can be more aggressive.

One example: if I take $100, invest $92, and use the other $8 to invest more aggressively than I otherwise might with the whole $100, my worst case scenario in 2 years? I get my $100 back. I’d have to speculate with options and lose it all for that to occur.

Let’s say I turn that $8 into $12 in 2 years, free to do things I would not do normally, in a market that might just reward that. $12 there, plus $100 back from the $92 in the 2-year bonds. Thats’ $112, or about a 6% annualized return. With a 0% return downside.

That’s just a basic example. But its a good example of risk management at work. And using the markets as a tool, learning those tools, to play offense AND defense at the same time.

I welcome your questions, comments and feedback!

That’s a colorful chart right there, isn’t it? Now, what the heck does it mean? It is my favorite type of graph, because it shows “rolling” results.

Too often we are presented with snapshots of past performance, whether back-tested like this one for my ROAR ETF model portfolio, or live. That is, we are shown “past 1, 3, 5 year returns.” That leaves out all of the events in between. For years, some professional investors have used that to their advantage. In an era where the typical market dive has been relatively brief, those snapshot performance charts can easily hide what happened during the worst of times.

Because in the decades I’ve been investing professionally, I’ve come to realize something that I sense many newer investors have not been told. That while the return percentage an investment generates is wildly inconsistent, the ability of an active strategy to manage risk tends to be much more consistent.

For example, if you see an ETF or a portfolio strategy made 14% a year the past 5 years, the worst assumption you can make is that level will persist. However, if a portfolio did a nice job of managing risk in a period where the stock market, bond, market or both fell, that should prompt a very valuable question: “what is it about that investment process that allows it to do that? And how likely is it to be repeated in future market cycles?”

That essentially sums of my old job. My very old job, that is. When I first started managing other people’s money in the mid-1990s, I was allocating among a fixed set of funds or “separately managed account” strategies, run by active managers. I did not have the wide reach I afford myself now, in terms of researching and identifying ETFs and stocks to own and trade as I wish.

I was a “manager of managers.” I spent years wearing the hat of “director” as opposed to being the active manager myself. It didn’t long before I realized, after being a manager scout for a half decade, that I could be my own portfolio manager. And do so on behalf of my then-firm’s clients, as I was the Chief Investment Officer (CIO).

Fast-forward to today: I am thrilled to be able to help self-directed investors and investment advisors find their own way to managing money like a pro.

OK Rob, get to the purple spaghetti part already…

That’s why I write posts like this. And why I’ll now explain the “purple spaghetti” reference. That chart shows the “maximum drawdown” over the past year. As the chart goes from left to right, the 1-year period keeps “rolling” with it. So the far right end of the graph is the worst drawdown (peak to trough loss in % terms) over the 12 months ended yesterday.

My ROAR 10 ETF portfolio, which was the subject of this research paper discussed earlier this week is that purple line. And I highlighted not simply because this is the main ETF portfolio I now oversee for my own family, but because it was specifically designed to manage risk first.

It is doing the job lately, as paid subscribers know. And since it is now largely an automated process (I review and finalize the ROAR Score-driven model weights generated every Wednesday for the copy-trading version of it offered at PiTrade.com) it is, I think the purple line is relevant.

It shows that the 5% max drawdown I aim for, even in some very sudden market drops (20-34% during that 2020-current period, the brown line above) is potentially achievable. More importantly to me, ROAR 10 did not have worse-case scenarios anywhere near those of the spectrum of asset allocation ETFs shown in the graph.

Just in the past 6 years, the uber-popular 60/40 portfolio (60% stocks/40% bonds), the green line above, has had max drawdowns of 23%, 22% and 10% at separate times. I like bonds, but I built a bond hedge into ROAR 10, in addition to the equity hedges and cash, because that market is also riskier than it has been in decades. And, more opportunistic.

So yeah, I like purple spaghetti. That’s why I built a modern, flexible, model portfolio of 10 ETFs around that risk management concept. As noted above, generating positive returns is often not the challenging part of investing.

Avoiding giving a lot of those gains back in down market stretches, costing time and emotional energy? THAT is the challenging part. We try to help investors be up for that challenge, at all times.

You don’t have to be a baseball fan at the level I am to appreciate what the World Baseball Classic (WBC) has done to jump-start the excitement level for the upcoming Major League Baseball (MLB) season. That tournament reminds us that regardless of where you came from originally, if you’re here now, and we share interests (ask the players, they are all one big fraternity), we’re gonna battle and put on a show. And we won’t be quiet about it, on the field or in the stands.

Baseball and I go way back, to my first game in the original Yankee Stadium in 1971, when 7-year old me refused to leave until the game was over. Somehow, my parents relented. The Yankees came back with 3 in the 9th to beat the Twins. I was hooked.

Fast forward to 2 weeks ago when my wife and I attended one of those WBC games in Miami, a stadium which, along with the one that preceded it in South Florida, was essentially where I raised our 3 kids. Baseball is not in the blood, but you sure can transmit it through exposure. Good luck to your team this season, starting in less than 2 weeks.

How does that relate to the markets? I’m starting to see more evidence that just as the nations of the globe gather every few years to compete in the WBC, and every 4 years across sports in the Olympics, the feeling of “we are all one global nation” is seeping into market prices. I’m talking about what I refer to as the “worst stag party ever”: Stagflation. And that makes us all part of “Stagflation Nation.”

Q: Rob, what’s stagflation? I’m starting to hear it more lately.

A: A combination of stagnation in the economy (lack of growth or even recession), and persistent inflation. Such as that caused by wars that are quick to start, but can take a long time to end, at least in terms of their enduring impact on the price of energy, and via the domino effect, food and shelter. That’s the economy right there.

(side note: “stag party” is a very dated term for what we now call a bachelor party)

Q: Is stagflation bad, Rob?

A: No…it is WORSE! Because for tradition investment thinkers, there’s nowhere to run, nowhere to hide. I’ll show you what I mean in the charts below.

Q: So, what do we do, Rob?

A: My role here is to explain what I see and do, and to teach others the elements they need to become their own portfolio manager. On their own self-directed terms. So what do I do at times like this? Same as always.

1. Narrow the field of choices down to only my preferred “weapons of choice.” Those include some ETFs that historically have the ability to deliver quite a body blow to the stagflation era, if we do have another one. Check out market history in the 1970s if you want to uncomfortable details. Take the kids out of the room first. And while I don’t abandon stocks, my approach to them is less about “stock picking” and more about “premeditated rotation" among an established set of them. Oh BTW, most stocks have been rendered irrelevant in modern markets, as I’ve been explaining vividly in our live group sessions, and in a Barchart.com article that published this morning.

2. Lean toward owning them all, at all times. But emphasize “position sizing.” THE BIGGEST MISTAKE I see DIY investors making right now: the old 80/20 rule (if not 95/5). Too focused on what to buy, and not enough on how much to own, now, versus next month, versus a few months from now. To me, the whole market is largely one big “risk on/risk off” trade. I didn’t make those rules. But I’m also not going to let them run my retirement for me!

3. Be consistent about how the different parts of the portfolio are allocated. Picking stocks and ETFs is fun. Portfolio management is serious and impactful (see the “what” versus “how much” comparison immediately above). This site and service includes “picks.” But ask anyone who has stuck with it (thank you!!!) and you’ll likely get an answer that sounds like this: “I’m learning how to use my money to do things with it I didn’t think about doing before.” Nothing tricky. Just the science and art of risk management. And using my ROAR Score method to make much more informed decisions.

What’s next? I don’t know, maybe stagflation. Or maybe another round of AI Madness to match the intensity of the upcoming NCAA Tourney. Or maybe another 6 months of QQQ returning 0% (did you realize that?). But I do know this: for years, DIY investors have gotten away with not having to do much thinking, or personalizing, on their own.

I think those times are over.

These are not the markets I learned to grow up with, starting about 15 years after that first game at Yankee Stadium. But I didn’t sit still as they changed, and changed some more. We evolve with the markets and deal with the ones we have. Not the ones we wished we had. Or more dangerously, the ones we think we still have.

Now to the specifics.

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Weekly Investing Digest | March 8 – March 14, 2026

🚩 The Macro View: A Market on Edge

The S&P 500 is showing signs of exhaustion. From leadership gaps to technical “tightropes,” here is what you need to watch:

• The S&P 500 Is Walking a Tightrope — And It May Be About to Fall: Why the current technical setup is precarious.

• The Biggest Threat to the Market: It’s not just inflation; it’s the lack of leadership beyond the Mag-7.

• The ‘Flight to Quality’ is Stalling: This specific ETF explains why traditional safety plays aren’t working.

• My 10-ETF Portfolio & Macro Indicator: A deep dive into what the data is signaling for the coming week.

📉 Volatility & Tactical Plays

Whether it’s geopolitical tension or individual stock fades, volatility is back. Here is how to navigate it:

• Small-Cap Meltdown? Unusual options activity suggests a major move is brewing in small caps.

• The VIX Spike: Two ways to stay profitable no matter which way the “fear index” swings.

• Oil & The Strait of Hormuz: Strategic ways to play energy as geopolitical tensions shake the market.

• Fading Tesla: Two tactical setups for a cooling EV giant.

💰 Commodities & Contrarian Ideas

• Silver’s Big Move: Why silver is primed to make traders money and the two best ways to play it.

• The Esports Comeback: Is it time to “press play” on this beaten-down sector?

📊 Professional Toolkit (Real-Time Signals)

The articles above provide the “what” and the “why.” If you want the “when” and the “how much,” use these tools:

• Track the Risk: See exactly how I am weighting risk vs. reward with the ROAR score on Pitrade.com.

• See My Charts: Grab a 30-Day Free Trial of BarChart Premier to see the technical setups I use.

• Upgrade Your Data: Take $30 off a Seeking Alpha Premium subscription to access the same institutional-grade research I reference in my weekly index.

• Next Update: Watch your inbox this Tuesday for The Weekly ROAR, breaking down post-weekend technical signals.

Link to the snapshot above:

https://roar.pitrade.com/stock/QQQ

OK, here’s my latest thinking, now that it looks more like “crunch time” for the stock market:

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