For a limited time, we are offering this weekly live session to all our subscribers. Please join us HERE on

Tuesday, May 12 at 4 PM EST

All sessions are recorded and posted on our YouTube channel @etfyourself for review.

This is a great way to learn about the tools available at ROAR.PiTrade and see them in action as Rob gives a weekly report using the ROAR.PiTrade analysis.

Here is the schedule for the next three sessions:

5/12: Ladder Me-How to supplement your Social Security or Working Income with this US Treasury Bond strategy

5/19: Collar Me - A simple, jargon-free, hype-free way to use options to protect and grow capital

5/26: ETF Yourself - Why 97% of ETFs don’t matter, and how to focus on the ones that do

Mark your calendars and join us! The sessions are very interactive and we all learn a lot!

This week’s live show might be the most valuable one we’ve ever presented. Using the current markets as the setting, Rob will walk you through:

• ROAR: best practices for deciding how to best apply it to your own investing.

• Introduction to the new ROAR.PiTrade.com home page.

• The new ROAR Markets tab: the world at a glance

• Using watchlists to narrow your focus for better decision-making

• Model Portfolios, and how to analyze performance the right way

• Creating your own portfolios

This weekly session is open only to Premium subscribers every Tuesday at 4 PM EST

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Let’s say the quiet part out loud: the stock market is grossly overvalued. So why is the S&P 500 still 3% from its all-time high? Because risk of major loss, my top focus as an investment analyst, is not a certainty, it’s a probability. Like your team winning a game, the price of gasoline at the pump a month from now, or having a health issue.

And that’s what so many investors miss, and should get in sync with. Before they find out that markets travel in all directions, not only north.

To size up where we are, and potentially where we are going at any moment in time, I created the ROAR Score. It is not a guarantee. It is more like those new, hot, sexy prediction markets, like Kalshi or Polymarket.

Or like my favorite sport, horse racing. The favorite does not win every race. Actually more like 1/3 of races. And not all favorites have the same odds. And long shots come in, with some sharp racing analysts developing a nice habit of finding them. Investing is analogous to horse racing in many ways. That’s one reason I created my other (free) Substack site, HorseClaiming.com

As for the S&P 500, and the other major stock indexes, they are getting smoked as this week closes. The impulse reaction from many newer investors (those who have not had significant assets at stake during a bear market) is to ask “should I buy the dip with both fists today, or wait until next week?” In other words, they’ve been trained by market pundits that every drop in stock prices is a “buying opportunity.”

That’s not true. But try telling some of them. I have tried.

What’s the market telling us right now?

Below, as I’ll show in living color, the major stock indexes are presenting what to me is one of the more threatening pictures I’ve seen in a while. The ROAR Scores are reflecting it for the most part. However, I think it is the rest of this month of March that will be the proving ground, one way or the other.

Why do I think that? Because I’ve spent 30-something years looking at charts, and recently developing an automated way to read them. And when I see pictures that look like this, I know I’ve seen them before. Many times, since the 1980s.

Some of them led to huge drawdowns, reversing years of gains in a fraction of the time. And others were just false alarms.

But my mantra as an investor, back in my days as a fiduciary client advisor, and today as a semi-retired investment writer and “Chief ROAR Score Evangelist” has always been the same. And my portfolios’ paths during uncertain times like this support it: if you manage risk tightly at all times, you get your fair share of the ups. But more importantly, you will also do what one some describe as “minimize maximum regret.”

We are in one of those market eras in which wide swings in value should be expected. The question, as Taylor Swift would ask, is this: are you ready for it?

ROAR.PiTrade.com is our free “lab” you can try out.

ETFYourself.com (paid levels) is where I explain what I see there, and in my direct chart work too.

PiTrade.com is where those who simply want to copy what I do in some of my risk-managed portfolios can do so.

Now, let’s get to the charts and ROAR Scores.

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Let’s be honest: Wall Street loves to make investing sound like rocket science. They’ll sell you a 30-fund “diversified” portfolio that ends up being nothing more than a giant, expensive closet index. Over my 30-plus years as an advisor and fund manager, I’ve learned that complexity is often the enemy of clarity—and the enemy of your returns.

That’s why I developed my 10-ETF Model Portfolio. It isn’t just a list of tickers; it’s a philosophy. It’s built on the idea that you don’t need 500 stocks to win; you need 10 focused “buckets” that allow you to play offense when the sun is shining and a rock-solid defense when the clouds roll in.

The Architecture: 10 Slots, One Mission (a Core Portfolio)

Here’s what this portfolio looks like when I include and update and commentary on it every Tuesday in our Weekly ROAR newsletter for paid subscribers. This portfolio is also available as part of our “Copy-Trading” agreement with our friends at PiTrade.com. More on that below.

The 10 portfolios slots are always used. That is, I always have at least a token allocation to all 10. This makes it like a more flexible version of the popular “permanent portfolio” approach. Except that here, every week the weightings of each of the 10 ETFs is up for review, based on their ROAR Scores.

As market cycles evolve, I may find it helpful to “upgrade” one or more of the slots. Return and Risk characteristics of different markets change over time, and I’ve seen too many mistakes by investors clinging to things like “income stocks” or “value” or “small caps,” when in fact those market segments can be uncompetitive for a decade or longer. So I remain flexible at all times. I think that’s what helped get me this far (I started managing money professionally in 1993).

This model portfolio is designed to be a “core” investment vehicle. I use it alongside a “bond ladder,” my 2-ETF portfolios, and some short-term trading. That’s my total portfolio.

I use 10 specific ETFs to cover the waterfront, but I don’t just “buy and hold” them forever. I manage them tactically using what I call the ROAR (Reward Opportunity And Risk) Score. That’s the name I gave to the systematic approach to analyzing ETF and stock charts, which is now a process whose bottom-line can be seen for any security at any time, at our analytics site, ROAR.PiTrade.com.

Here is how the 10-ETF framework is structured:

Based on the allocation model as of February 22, 2026, here is a simple breakdown of the roles for each of the 10 ETFs, categorized by their mission on the field.

The Offense Squad (Growth & Inflation Protection)

These five positions are designed to capture market upside and protect against the erosion of purchasing power.

• QQQ (Core Equity): This tracks the Nasdaq 100, serving as a high-growth engine focused on technology innovators.

• DIA (Core Equity): This tracks the Dow Jones Industrial Average, providing a concentrated anchor of 30 blue-chip stocks that are easy to monitor.

My research has concluded that QQQ + DIA + ROAR Score = a better return/risk tradeoff than the S&P 500 (SPY). As long as I believe that to be the case, I’ll keep these two paired within the portfolio, allocating among them.

• PDBC (Commodities): An inflation-fighter that invests in a broad basket of commodities like energy, gold, and agriculture.

• GLD (Gold): While commodities include some gold, this slot isolates the metal as a dedicated inflation fighter and offset to long-term concerns about fiat currencies.

• IBIT (Bitcoin): A modern “spot” Bitcoin tracker included to ensure the portfolio doesn’t exclude the crypto era’s growth potential.

The Defense Squad (Stability & Hedging)

These five positions are designed to preserve capital and even profit during market downturns or rising interest rate environments.

• GOVI (Core Bond): This provides diversification across the U.S. Treasury yield curve (1–30 years) to act as a stabilizer against stock market volatility. In falling rate environments, it also has significant profit potential.

• TBF (Hedge/Inverse): This “Short” position profits when long-term Treasury bond rates rise, often providing a hedge against equity market drops.

This is one part of “income investing” research that I think many in my field miss. Bonds yield more than stocks, but as we saw in 2022, rising rates can destroy their total return, resulting in a years-long climb back to even. I prefer to treat rising rates as just another in a wide range of possible outcomes to try to exploit for growth with managed risk.

• BIL (Cash & Equivalents): Focused on the shortest-term Treasury bills (0-3 months to maturity, this is the “parking lot” for safety. At times it can actually rival the returns of stocks and bonds. It does not often get close to its 60% maximum weight, but in a case where virtually nothing is working, BIL can be a nice place to hang out.

• BTAL (Long-Short Equity): A sophisticated “Anti-Beta” play that aims to profit when low-volatility stocks outperform higher-volatility stocks. At times I have used a straight “inverse” ETF in this slot. But the first half of this decade was so dominated by higher volatility stocks, I felt this one was a better fit, for a while at least. Especially when paired with the last ETF position, described next.

• VIXY (Wildcard): A high-volatility “tail” position that spikes when the stock market freaks out, providing a compact way to hedge large equity exposure. As such, is high, low and neutral allocation levels are the lowest of any of the 10 ETFs.

Why 10? Why Not 2 or 20? A case of “less is more”

You might wonder why I settled on 10. It’s the “Goldilocks” number for the modern DIY investor:

• Precision: 10 ETFs are enough to capture every major market trend—from AI booms to interest rate spikes.

• Manageability: You can review ten tickers in 15 minutes. You can’t do that with a portfolio of 30 mutual funds, much less 100 stocks. Markets are so highly correlated now, less is more.

The “ROAR” Factor: Why It Makes Sense

The biggest mistake investors make is staying “all in” during a bear market. My 10-ETF portfolio makes sense because it is dynamic. It can tilt toward a more aggressive or conservative mix, or somewhere in between. And with the diverse set of markets represented, it tends to be less vulnerable to market shocks and whipsaw.

With this model portfolio, I’m not trying to predict the future. I am navigating the present, without creating the stress that comes with making constant “binary” decisions. This is not a matter of “buy or sell,” it is about how much to own, at any point in time, given the players on the team around each ETF.

Investing isn’t about being right or wrong. It is about trying to keep worst-case scenarios off the table at all times, then make as much as I can.

10-ETF Allocation Portfolio: Copy Trading Capability

That means investors can go to that site, choose “ETF Yourself Allocation” portfolio and have this same portfolio I run for myself managed for you through that RIA (Registered Investment Advisor) firm, through an account custodied at Interactive Brokers. The 10-ETF ROAR Scores and the portfolio allocation/rebalancing methodology I set up with PiTrade.com is automatically traded weekly, if there are any changes to the positions.

Summary Thoughts

The 10-ETF portfolio is about helping investors confront modern markets with a sense of control, moderation and confidence. It’s about moving away from the “hope and pray” method of 60/40 indexing and moving toward a tactical, risk-managed approach that prioritizes capital preservation as much as growth. It’s simple, it’s transparent, and most importantly, it’s built to survive whatever the market throws at us next.

Here’s the thing about past performance in investing. Every advertisement for an investment that includes performance information has a disclaimer such as this: “past performance is not a guarantee of future results.” That’s absolutely true. However…

There is one thing about past performance that IS a guarantee. We can’t have it. In in the past!

I’m not trying to be cute here. The fact is, past performance of an investment strategy, on the surface, does not tell us anything about how that same approach will work in the market climate of today, or at any point in the future. Markets change, the players involved change, and the effectiveness of strategies that used to work definitely changes.

What shouldn’t change? The OBJECTIVES of a investing strategy. Case in point, the way we run things at ETF Yourself. We have our priorities straight:

1. Avoid Big Loss (ABL). A drop from any peak to trough of 10% is about all we’ll allow. Many investors will tell you that can’t be controlled, that market volatility is not something we can do much about. We say they’re not trying hard enough!

2. Make as much as we can, after doing all we can to take big loss off the table.

3. Control the range of possible outcomes (ROPO, as we call it). Using our ROAR Score and position sizing techniques, developed and evolved over decades. Including through 7 bear market cycles.

4. Continuously seek to improve, in good markets and bad. A big part of being an ETF Yourself subscriber is joining us on that journey. We are not a service that is based on “just follow my picks and get rich.” Because that assumes every investor is going to take our work and use it the same way. So instead, we lead by example, walking subscribers through our ongoing thought process.

Our past performance record: what it is and isn’t

We get it. Everyone wants to know “how did you do?” And that’s what show just below. It is a record we think shows a consistent pattern over a long period of time: we manage risk. And by doing so, we achieve consistent long-term results, while skipping the panicky periods most investors go through.

These performance records are presented in 3 parts:

1. The live record of our 2-ETF Conservative Portfolio, governed by our weekly ROAR Score. We’ve compared it to what we think is a logical benchmark, a conservative mix of 30% stocks/70% bonds as a comparison. This mix has been shared with our subscribers weekly since the start of 2022.

Our conclusion over the past 4 years of running these, and showing them weekly to subscribers? SIMPLE works pretty well!

2. We also share the Moderate version of the same 2-ETF portfolio, which mandates SPY be at least 50% of the portfolio at all times, and allocating the other 50% as per the ROAR Score. This mix has been shared with our subscribers in addition to the Conservative portfolio above, for a while, via our weekly letter. We compare it to a balanced mix of 60% stocks/40% bonds.

3. The last performance record shown is one had to go into the proverbial attic to create. It is a mix of Rob Isbitts’ investment returns through multiple segments of his investing career. It goes all the way back to late 2002, and links together what were audited returns from his past life as a fiduciary investment advisor to high net worth families. The benchmarks we chose for this linked-together record of more than 20 years reflect the concepts of low-volatility returns, and the general objective Rob had for his then-clients during most of his advisory career: do better than a total bond portfolio, such as the Vanguard mutual fund shown here. That mandate is still a priority for the Isbitts family in managing their own money, so we included a 5% and 6% annualized return to service as “guardrails” for the live, long-term record (purple line).

Finally, here’s a quick summary of some performance analytics, covering the 3-year period ending 12/19/25. Explanations below this graphic.

Over this 3-year period, the Conservative 2-ETF portfolio, comprised only of SPY, BIL and using ROAR as an allocation system, produced an annualized return of just over 8%. The standard deviation over that time was only 3%, about half that of both the Conservative Allocation ETF (AOK) and the Vanguard Total Bond Index ETF (BND). That was also about 1/4 the standard deviation of a popular dividend ETF (SCHD), which returned 7.3% of that period.

The upside and downside statistics measure the percentage of the up and down moves of the S&P 500 ETF (SPY) were experienced by the 2-ETF strategy. It captured about 30% of the upside, but only 12% of the downside of SPY over this 3-year period.

Finally, the maximum drawdown for the 2-ETF strategy over this period was less than 4%. BND and SCHD fell by 16-17% each during this time, while SPY had a drawdown of nearly 20%.

The last figure is a “Sortino Ratio,” a standard measure of risk-adjusted return. This allows us to compare investments of different risk levels, on a more direct basis. A Sortino Ratio of more than 2.0 during this period compared favorably to 1.2 for AOK, 0.1 for SCHD and -0.1 for BND.

The bottom-line: over this 3-year period, the simple, easy-to-trade 2-ETF portfolio created for ETF Yourself subscribers. was a significantly more successful form of risk-managed investing.

Importantly, the strategy name and techniques evolved over time. But as we alluded to above in discussing the concept of investment performance, the OBJECTIVES have not changed. Those objectives are what ETF Yourself service is based on. We are not your typical high-risk investment publishing service.

While the modern incarnation of this approach is a simple 2-ETF Conservative portfolio, the predecessor strategies used ETFs, mutual funds, and to a lesser degree, options and stocks, to pursue those same priorities. Back then it was for our clients. Since 2020, when we retired from that business, it has been for our family only.

So, that’s as complete a description of what the performance record below is, and isn’t. It is not “GIPS compliant” which is the standard for investment managers. We had the returns audited at times in the past, but it is not all audited. Frankly, unless someone is selling advisory services based primarily on past performance, there’s not much benefit in taking on the time and expense to meet the very high standards the industry places on it.

But the full record was on actual accounts Rob was the full decision-maker on. And unlike a lot of performance records out there these days, you have a detailed explanation of where it came from.

We’ll continue to provide performance updates if our subscribers think it is important to them to follow along with how we are managing our money, apart from our bond ladder, option collars and trading accounts.

We are NOT about selling past returns. But we do realize they can help people understand what true risk-managed investing looks like in practice.

We are about “ABL” and then making as much as we can. In as straight a line as we can. That will not change.