Let’s start by talking about the above chart. My posture on market return and risk potential starts there. Below, I’ll detail it for you, with a lot of help from the ROAR Score trend data at ROAR.PiTrade.com.
Which One Are You? (hint: there are NO wrong answers)
What becomes clearer to me by the day is that we’re at the stage of the stock market cycle where, based on doing this for 40 years, the investor population is on the way to splitting into two camps.
Those who invest intentionally: A process, reasons for each action, a clear set of goals in mind. That includes how much of every $100 that they are willing to risk. And how every decision is part of a broader portfolio picture. This used to be the exclusive domain of professional investment managers. That’s no longer the case, and it has given rise to an era of DIY investing. Some works, a lot that doesn’t.
Those who invest based on what sounds and feels good. Perhaps because it is currently popular and working out well so far. They may not have the time and/or willingness to be ardent DIY investors. So, that’s where the “process” ends.
It is nearly six years since we sold our investment advisory firm and became laser-focused on research, publishing, and putting my brand of “thought-leadership” out there for anyone to consume as they wish. And while there will always be an element of that, the more we see the development of those two “camps” above, the more we choose to focus on the first one.
We’ve had a great opportunity to speak to some of our subscribers who I would label as “serious investors.” And the more I talk to them, the more I realize, our mission going forward needs to be more like an “80/20 rule”…or more like 90%/10%.
The Inner Circle: For Dedicated DIY Investors
As I say proudly, “I am an acquired taste.” And since we became semi-retired folk back in early 2020, that has become clearer all the time. And I’m grateful to those who have self-selected to become part of what I affectionately call Sungarden’s “Inner Circle.”
I say that because while there’s always room for more serious investor to “yearn to learn,” I am, at the core, an investment educator. I no longer guide clients 1:1, and my model portfolios are purely what I am doing with my money. So people can learn from them, and invest in them on their own if they so choose.
Frankly, the ROAR Score concept that will guide the paid section of this post is a major part of that. A year ago, I was fortunate enough to have PiTrade.com find me.
I think if you asked their founders, they’d tell you they got a lot more than they bargained for…in both directions! What else would you expect from “Mr. Play Offense And Defense At The Same Time?”
My model portfolios reside on their site, and as often happens when markets dip, several of them are sitting atop the short-term performance leaderboard.
This is not about short-term performance. It is reminder that markets today are simply not what they used to be. What every investor does with that fact is up to them.
For those who have and will step forward and say “coach me,” know that our focus continues to be on you, that “group 1” above. Between my Barchart.com column, my Seeking Alpha articles, my posts here and the free section of ROAR.PiTrade.com, the analytics and DIY portfolio building site I created with PiTrade, there are many ways for people in that “group 2” above to get a sense of what I am saying.
If you want to go to the next level, and apply how I think and operate as an investor to what you want from your own self-directed investing efforts, I invite you to become part of our inner circle.
How? Attend our weekly live show, send questions via our chat, or email us at info@sungardeninvestment.com. As our most tenured subscribers know, we are very much driven by what they collectively tell us they want to learn more about, to help them DIY.
Now, to these markets. First, let’s talk about the US midterm elections coming in two weeks, then that QQQ chart above.
The election is weighing on market activity. I can see the jitters in my daily perusal of charts and chatter. Frankly, I don’t think the market even knows what it wants from the election results on November 3rd. I don’t think we’ll know until it happens.
Why Introspection is a VERY good thing right now
That has me in “no false moves, Rob!” mode in the two model portfolios I run personally, ROAR Flex and Hedged Bond. More and more, I think “it's the bond market’s world, and we’re just living in it.” I have to use that headline above the paywall soon!
That translates to a lower-turnover period currently. But that can change at any time. It is also making me very introspective. This world of Wall Street is so full of arrogance. Everyone knows better. I’m the opposite.
I respect the markets, and I seek to use them for what they are. Not a path to assured wealth like so many seem to nowadays. But a tool for me to learn to use, and never stop learning, to get what I want out of my life, using my invested capital. That’s it folks. That’s investing. And why humility is going to conquer arrogance over time. It always does.
Let’s keep that in mind as I cover some key charts and ROAR Score data, with that election looming. Oh, not to mention earnings season.