We had to choose from among many pictures of bears for this week’s Fresh Charts post. We went with the polar variety. Because as the charts I show and analyze below reveal, winter is already here for some market segments.
It is hitting the headlines. But it is VERY early. That’s why, as an ardent risk manager, I am spending more of my time “setting up” for potential big moves. The key to making money in volatile, and even sustained down markets for stocks, bonds, or anything else is to distinguish between what is likely to be temporary, and which moves have “legs.”
The most critical investing lesson I’ve learned over the decades:
If you give yourself at least a shot at making money on sustained down moves, and prioritize “don’t lose big” over “how much can I make if the market always goes up,’ even if you don’t succeed, you likely win in the long run. Why?
Because every $100 you had at the peak bottomed at closer to $95 than $80. Or $70. Or $60. Or $50. Or less.
By the way, my friends at the Money Show (now in their 45th year - pretty cool!) offered me a second live session at their upcoming conference in Orlando. I say “hell yes,” so I’ll be speaking in the early afternoon, then again in the late afternoon that day. If you check out this link to my Money Show Speaker page, you can use that as a springboard to see all of the speakers across the 3-day event, and sign up to join us.
Money Show Orlando on Tuesday, October 6
I have found that this conference, since it is purposely limited in size, offers the very best “access” to a wide range of investment insight. I’m thrilled to be a part of it once again. And in this digitally-dominated world, it is nice to know there are still places where people gather to exchange ideas.
Now, to those Fresh Charts. Let’s start with the regular best/worst setups table, then some charts that I think are the real drivers of near-term market direction.