This is the type of week in my life where so many things become clearer. What was so different, other than the continued rise in bond rates (I like!), the continued slide in small cap stocks (I like!), and the ability of Wall Street to spin anything into a positive (I’ve seen this movie before, and know how it ends!)?
I went on the road. Just for a day. After decades of commuting to an office (first from NJ to NYC, then from my home in Florida to an office 5 minutes away), I’ve worked from home since the pandemic started. So getting out of my cave is very refreshing. It is also why I work from Gulfstream Park once a week when I can.
There, I’m surrounded by buzz, excitement, horse racing, and a great restaurant with great views of the track. On some days, one of the horses I own through the partnership I helped create might even be running that day.
Writing, trading, winner’s circle picture? That’s a trifecta!
I’m guessing I’ve written 500 articles and done hundreds of trades from there. Everyone needs something like that in their life. That’s mine. It helps that I can work outside there most of the year.
This week’s version of “road-tripping” was a lot more tame. Tuesday, I took the excellent but apparently red ink-bleeding Brightline high speed rail from Fort Lauderdale to Orlando, a 3-hour trip.
An Uber to a hotel, 2 live speaking events at the Orlando Money Show, and a “let’s squeeze this in” version of my 4pm ET weekly show later, I was a bit exhausted. Not too exhausted to write this article for Seeking Alpha on the nighttime train ride home, though.
Thanks to those who attended. Some of the best questions we’ve had occurred in that live session. Very much worth the “squeeze.”
My two presentations that day were a bit varied, but I did include a shocker of a list, which I shared on the live show as well. So check out that recording. It is at the start of the show. It takes a lot to shock me, but this did it.
Musings From My Latest Money Show Speaking Appearance
The Money Show is a lot of fun, and typically a very interactive crowd. The first session was really my debut of what the recent E-book was about: the opportunity I see in hedged bond investing.
The second was, to my surprise, a packed house. The title was “Chart Me Up,” and my presentation was brief. A bit about me, a bit about what I look for in a chart (thanks as always to Barchart.com for providing the easiest chart-coaching visuals EVER!). And I used ROAR.PiTrade.com to do my favorite thing: have people fire tickers at me, “Cramer/Mad Money”-style, and I simply tell them what I see.
In fact, it was so engaging and appreciated by that crowd, I decided that should be more the “to the point” format of our weekly live shows. So starting this Tuesday, it will be.
We’re also quickly creating a learning library of short posts from past live shows, so paid subscribers can catch up, brush up, or whatever they like. 20-200 seconds at a time. We’ll post when it is available.
Now, let’s get into it. Rather than the Fresh Charts table I’ve been presenting, which has become an exercise in futility to find quality “long” setups, I’m going to be very “raw” this week. I’ll show you some lowlights and some highlights from my trading accounts.
What’s the point?
I know my industry is all about convincing you they are expert traders. I’m an expert at not losing big on the way to making long-term returns that allow me to live the lifestyle I want in retirement. Big difference!
Part of that for me, and I suspect for many others, is experimenting. Not just to see what works, but what I think is worth the ongoing effort. That includes some of the trade “ideas” I’ve put out here and elsewhere recently.
I had a question about when I would close the QQQ trade I referenced just a few days ago. The “convexity” call options. That means small investment, big potential gains if QQQ flies higher soon. But that I’ll lose the $300 I put up, a risk I was willing to take.
After a nice start (that $300 peaked around $800 or so the next day), they have both tanked. That’s all it takes in that type of low-dollar/high-risk trading. That’s why it is more a part of the “trader’s journey” I convey here.
In other words, do what I say, not what I do
I’m an experienced analyst and coach. And as you will see below, my options trading is about taking big shots with capital I can afford to lose.
Every investor needs to find their “center.”
I’m just here to provide perspective and ongoing stream of consciousness, to provide the “stimulus” that one or more subscribers can benefit from, as they choose.
For every 5-1 or 10-1 “winner” there are many little losers. A lot of times, that nets out to a lot of practice with real money (which is better than paper-trading in my opinion). And if this or that ticker I’m trading has a nice move, that can make up for lots of small, tolerable losses.
As I said to the Money Show crowd on Tuesday, I am moving ever closer to an attitude that says: “Take the 5% or so in bonds, hedge it, and trade around it.” If someone in the audience here can offer me an alternative to that path, I’d love to hear it.
Because buy and hold stock investing, “asset allocation” and the rest of the traditional playbook looks broken to me. It has for a while. It only took bond rates returning to normal to make it apparent to the masses. But here we are.
All the more reason to be a DIY investor, but with non-personalized assistance (like we provide here), from a career analyst that is doing this to “be useful and be paid fairly,” not because his own livelihood relies on “good picks.”
So with that fresh perspective from a long day up and back to Orlando earlier this week, here’s some of the “show me what you are doing” stuff our paid subscribers have been asking for.