The 3s Report: Waiting On NVDA? Not Me. Here's What I'm Scouting
Summary
ROAR Score remains at 20, keeping my model portfolio at 20% SPY and 80% BIL, reflecting a cautious stance.
I'm watching rates more than NVDA earnings, as rising yields could shift market leadership away from tech heavyweights.
Bond ladders look increasingly attractive in this rate environment—an underrated strategy for modern investors.
Tech stocks like MSFT and TSLA show mixed signals, while IBM and crypto assets present both risks and opportunities worth monitoring.
ROAR Score weekly update
Our "Reward Opportunity and Risk" (ROAR) score remains at 20 for the 4th straight week.
This means a 2-ETF portfolio that can only be allocated to SPY and BIL would be 20% SPY and 80% BIL.
A more growth-oriented portfolio using the ROAR Score would continue to be 60% SPY and 40% BIL, on the assumption that SPY is always at least 50%, and the other 50% was allocated according to the ROAR Score. (50%) + (20% of the other 50%) = 60% SPY.
3 Quick Thoughts on markets
NVDA reports earnings for the latest quarter on Wednesday night. It has become the event of events, 4 times a year. It used to be AAPL, and before that INTC and CSCO many years back. The biggest of the big tech stocks, debated and over-analyzed.
I’m more focused on interest rates. Because while the summer has been a time of investors ignoring most of the biggest risks, that’s often what happens before September and October arrive.
I’m also looking to see if stocks other than the top-heavy market leaders will finally be worth a look, after lagging for so long. Jury’s still out. NVDA’s earnings won’t likely change that. But rising rates could.
3 ETF (or index) charts I’m watching
When will S&P 500 ex-tech stocks outperform the tech sector itself? Heck if I know. There have been hints as shown below. But until they last, its hard to fight the tape.
So, you think rates are not attractive here? This is the 10–year US Treasury bond going back 23 years, to this time of year in 2002. Do they look high or low? As I see it, even if rates go much higher, this is a solid time to be looking at what a bond ladder can do. I built one earlier this year, and am happy to share more about that “construction project” going forward. I think it is one of most underrated aspects of investing in modern markets.
Bitcoin and crypto in general are a dichotomy to me right now. The vibe is as strong as ever. Its like the inevitable winning investment, if you listen to the media folks. But the charts look very vulnerable to me.
That's when looking at it this way can help. IBIT's 6-month rolling return is hanging in there. The 3-month looks awful, but this one, not so bad. This is far from the only reason that charting crypto assets is a whole other animal versus stocks and ETFs.
3 stock charts I’m watching
MSFT looks like its in some trouble here. That recent earnings spike took the stock to an all-time high. Was that a buy signal? Nope. Stock down 10% since. Welcome to modern markets.
TSLA is as wild as they get. But it has chilled out lately. And appears to be setting up for a potential up move.
NVDA is the news-maker this week, win or lose. But this old timer, IBM, has a chart that has a lot of upside room. It is not there yet, but its percolating.
Final thoughts for now
Dana and I are toward the tail end of a 17-day driving trip up and down the US East Coast. As is my tradition, I expect to create a post that dovetails parts of that trip with investing. Both current and evergreen in nature. I wrote about Africa 2 years ago, and Europe last year. So I think I can handle FL to NY and back!