The 3s Report: Wake Me Up When September Ends?
From timely to timeless, the 3 most important points we can make about stocks, bonds, ETFs, markets and investing...updated weekly
ROAR Score weekly update
Our "Reward Opportunity and Risk" (ROAR) score remains at 30, where it was raised to last week from the previous 10 level.
This means a 2-ETF portfolio that can only be allocated to SPY and BIL is allocated 30% SPY and 70% BIL.
Through a volatile 2025 so far, this simple 2-ETF portfolio is up 1.4%, ahead of most equity and hybrid strategies. More significantly, at no point this year has it been down more than 0.6% for the year to date.
3 Quick Thoughts on markets
So much of my current market view has been captured in interviews I've given this year, such as my March appearance on Seeking Alpha's Investing Experts podcast.
Risk is high, but so what? The goal is to make money and not lose big, regardless of market conditions. That said, increasingly, this looks like a stock market that could remain in a wide range for a while. But a range nonetheless.
The title this week is an homage to a song by the great band Green Day. History has seen many years in which trouble brewed in late winter, the panic calmed during spring and summer, only to return that autumn with a ferocity that made the first part of the decline look merely like a flesh wound. The first 3 charts below (index section) recall 3 times I remember well in my professional investing career, which serve as a reminder that before we start "calling bottoms," we need to realize that a lot of market issues are far from resolved.
3 ETF (or index) charts I’m watching
Year 2000: Volatile through August, then September hit...
2008: The market fell 38% for the year, about half of it was in September and October. As of this point during that year (May 5), the S&P 500 was down 3.5% year to date. Just about exactly what it is now. Interesting.
2022: The big trouble started around this time of the year, before a summer rally calmed things down. Until mid-August and September, right on cue.
3 stock charts I’m watching
AAPL weakening again
While NVDA tries to rally off the floor, following a 35% drop
And GOOG starts to gather steam, perhaps poised to break out
Final thoughts for now
There are plenty of crosscurrents, and if anything has been established in 2025, that will continue. The plan for me continues to be trying to participate in a possible continuation of the recent rally. However, I'm doing so using a wide range of modern investor tools. Option collars, specialty ETFs and even some small positions in stocks unhedged for the first time in a while. But defense is always front of mind to me.
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