The Weekly ROAR: In 2026, We All Live in the Same Country: Stag-Nation.
How inflation trumps everything, if it doesn't vanish quickly
You don’t have to be a baseball fan at the level I am to appreciate what the World Baseball Classic (WBC) has done to jump-start the excitement level for the upcoming Major League Baseball (MLB) season. That tournament reminds us that regardless of where you came from originally, if you’re here now, and we share interests (ask the players, they are all one big fraternity), we’re gonna battle and put on a show. And we won’t be quiet about it, on the field or in the stands.
Baseball and I go way back, to my first game in the original Yankee Stadium in 1971, when 7-year old me refused to leave until the game was over. Somehow, my parents relented. The Yankees came back with 3 in the 9th to beat the Twins. I was hooked.
Fast forward to 2 weeks ago when my wife and I attended one of those WBC games in Miami, a stadium which, along with the one that preceded it in South Florida, was essentially where I raised our 3 kids. Baseball is not in the blood, but you sure can transmit it through exposure. Good luck to your team this season, starting in less than 2 weeks.
How does that relate to the markets? I’m starting to see more evidence that just as the nations of the globe gather every few years to compete in the WBC, and every 4 years across sports in the Olympics, the feeling of “we are all one global nation” is seeping into market prices. I’m talking about what I refer to as the “worst stag party ever”: Stagflation. And that makes us all part of “Stagflation Nation.”
Q: Rob, what’s stagflation? I’m starting to hear it more lately.
A: A combination of stagnation in the economy (lack of growth or even recession), and persistent inflation. Such as that caused by wars that are quick to start, but can take a long time to end, at least in terms of their enduring impact on the price of energy, and via the domino effect, food and shelter. That’s the economy right there.
(side note: “stag party” is a very dated term for what we now call a bachelor party)
Q: Is stagflation bad, Rob?
A: No…it is WORSE! Because for tradition investment thinkers, there’s nowhere to run, nowhere to hide. I’ll show you what I mean in the charts below.
Q: So, what do we do, Rob?
A: My role here is to explain what I see and do, and to teach others the elements they need to become their own portfolio manager. On their own self-directed terms. So what do I do at times like this? Same as always.
Narrow the field of choices down to only my preferred “weapons of choice.” Those include some ETFs that historically have the ability to deliver quite a body blow to the stagflation era, if we do have another one. Check out market history in the 1970s if you want to uncomfortable details. Take the kids out of the room first. And while I don’t abandon stocks, my approach to them is less about “stock picking” and more about “premeditated rotation" among an established set of them. Oh BTW, most stocks have been rendered irrelevant in modern markets, as I’ve been explaining vividly in our live group sessions, and in a Barchart.com article that published this morning.
Lean toward owning them all, at all times. But emphasize “position sizing.” THE BIGGEST MISTAKE I see DIY investors making right now: the old 80/20 rule (if not 95/5). Too focused on what to buy, and not enough on how much to own, now, versus next month, versus a few months from now. To me, the whole market is largely one big “risk on/risk off” trade. I didn’t make those rules. But I’m also not going to let them run my retirement for me!
Be consistent about how the different parts of the portfolio are allocated. Picking stocks and ETFs is fun. Portfolio management is serious and impactful (see the “what” versus “how much” comparison immediately above). This site and service includes “picks.” But ask anyone who has stuck with it (thank you!!!) and you’ll likely get an answer that sounds like this: “I’m learning how to use my money to do things with it I didn’t think about doing before.” Nothing tricky. Just the science and art of risk management. And using my ROAR Score method to make much more informed decisions.
What’s next? I don’t know, maybe stagflation. Or maybe another round of AI Madness to match the intensity of the upcoming NCAA Tourney. Or maybe another 6 months of QQQ returning 0% (did you realize that?). But I do know this: for years, DIY investors have gotten away with not having to do much thinking, or personalizing, on their own.
I think those times are over.
These are not the markets I learned to grow up with, starting about 15 years after that first game at Yankee Stadium. But I didn’t sit still as they changed, and changed some more. We evolve with the markets and deal with the ones we have. Not the ones we wished we had. Or more dangerously, the ones we think we still have.
Now to the specifics.