The Weekly ROAR (Special Issue) What You Might Have Missed: A 2025-2026 Transition Issue
As we transition into 2026, it is time to look back at a year that defied traditional “buy and hold” logic. In 2025, the market moved from being a “sport” to a high-stakes environment where risk management wasn’t just a luxury—it was a necessity.
We went back and compiled a recap of some of the notable topics I covered during 2025. The thing is, most of them are still very relevant as 2026 begins.
And at the bottom, there’s a table with a sampling of some stock and ETF-specific quotes from during the year. Not chosen as “picks” but as indications of the broader conditions and evolution of 2025’s market, into 2026. Enjoy!
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Whistling Past the Graveyard
We began the year with a sharp defensive shift as the “Reward Opportunity and Risk” (ROAR) score dropped to 20. While the broad market hadn’t rolled over, the technical setup was precarious. As I noted at the time, “I’m not convinced that December’s price action can simply be pawned off on ‘it’s low volume/holiday season’”. With most stocks looking like they were “toast” unless a new jolt of “hope-ium” arrived, the 20 score signaled a historically high-risk environment. I entered the year with a slim buy list, warning that while Wall Street remained bullish, I was content to “whistle past the graveyard” with a heavy cash and T-bill position until the air cleared.
The 2-ETF “Springboard”
The 2-ETF portfolio, consisting only of SPY (S&P 500) and BIL (T-Bills), proved to be more than just a simplified benchmark in 2025. It functioned as a