In this issue:
Indexes: In what I’d consider a return to normal order, the major stock market indexes are falling in line. The usual leaders are falling less, but there’s one that looks particularly vulnerable to me. The AI trade is leading investors in the aggregate to behave like that old shanty, “what do you do with a drunken sailor?” Lots of holiday cheer, but as my charts below will show, there’s a lot of gaps in the understanding of how stocks and other assets have actually performed. And since “AI” is in that song title, if it fits...
ETFs: I have decided that 2026 is “the year of investing simplicity.” Do not confuse that with dumbing down anything. That’s not what I’m doing, at least. Instead, I’m using my 30+ years of ETF analysis and portfolio management experience to craft a set of simpler 2-ETF combinations. It’s a learning tool for subscribers. But then again, the SPY/BIL 2-ETF portfolio started out as such. 4 years later, it is the head of its peer group.
Stocks: The drumbeat gets louder by the week. The stock market provides fleeting “alpha” over very short time periods at the single-stock level. But so many stocks net out to “meh” returns or worse over the past 3-5 years, it really is an “indexation-nation.”
Other timely stuff: Bitcoin...heard of it (lol). Well, you would not believe which super simple ETF it is neck and neck with the past year or so. It takes a lot to surprise me these days. But this did...just a little.
Plus, my latest market thoughts, and the latest update to the ROAR Score. Here’s the Weekly ROAR.